101
FXUS65 KGJT 281839
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1239 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 TOMORROW WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE TABLE.
- THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE EBBS AND FLOWS ACROSS THE
REGION, AS WILL THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES WITH THIS STORMY PATTERN. AFTER TODAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HOT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS WITH
HOT AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR ONE MORE
DAY. SOME REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT UNDER STRONGER STORMS, BUT
THE THREAT IS VERY LOW AND PRIMARILY CONTAINED TO RECENT BURN
SCARS AND SUSCEPTIBLE TERRAIN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
COOLER AND WETTER THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND:
A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SET
MOST OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO UP FOR A CLOUDY
SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS PWATS SURGE TO ~175% OF NORMAL. MOST NOTABLY, A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY TREAT.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING.
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE JET
DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST, FLASH FLOODING BECOMES THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF STRONG AND/OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT PWATS OF >150% OF NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN MODEL SPREAD
BEGINS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY MID WEEK, ANOTHER SOLID
PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
WEEK. AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK, SO WE'LL BE WATCHING THE TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM TO SEE IF WE
CAN POTENTIALLY TAP INTO THAT RICH, TROPICAL MOISTURE LATER IN
THE WEEK. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS
25 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS. THIS ALL ARRIVES AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST
CO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WITH A FEW
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, TERRAIN BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LESS WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS COULD TEMPORARILY DEVELOP UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LOWERS CEILINGS. SOME OVERNIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT IS BEING PROPOSED BY MODELS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ITS COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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