832
FXUS65 KGJT 290420
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 SATURDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS.
- STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, AS WILL THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG
VULNERABLE TERRAIN.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES WITH THIS CURRENT PATTERN. DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO NEXT WEEK COULD BE HOVERING NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
COOLER AND WETTER WEEKEND:
A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AS A RESULT OF AN INCOMING TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST.
DURING THIS TRANSITIONAL PERIOD, NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TO INTENSIFY UNDER DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT OF THIS, EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO WILL LIKELY BE WAKING EACH MORNING TO CLOUD COVER.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LEAVING US WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE TO ~150-190% OF NORMAL. AS
FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL, AND THEY CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND AS WE MOVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY:
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARRIVING SATURDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCED WIND
SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 60 MPH WERE SEEN WITH SOME OF
FRIDAY'S STORMS. THEREFORE, CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR
SATURDAY, IF NOT EVEN HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHTNING, HAIL,
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IF STORMS SLOW DOWN, STALL, OR
REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA.
SUNDAY:
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST, THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL SHIFT FROM DAMAGING WIND TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS INHERENTLY ENHANCES THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ON RECENT BURN SCARS AND SUSCEPTIBLE TERRAIN.
NEXT WEEK:
AS WE BEGIN NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING PWATS >150% OF
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, BEFORE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN MOISTURE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN
OUTCOMES BY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO RATHER LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE STILL REMAINS A
SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS
MOISTURE COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM SITUATED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WE WILL HAVE TO SEE EVOLVE TO GAIN A CLEARER
PICTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WELCOME RELIEF IS IN STORE AS
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE PRIMARY IMPACT AS GUSTS
COULD EXCEED 40 MPH. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS LOW. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH ILS BREAKPOINTS
POTENTIALLY BEING REACHED AT TIMES UNDER THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS. INCLUDED A FEW PROB30 GROUPS WHERE CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGHEST.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page