430
FXUS65 KGJT 082351
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
551 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAYBE A QUICK STORM, WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH WILL SUPPORT A SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY TOMORROW. THE
SHIFT TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
THE DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH
MAKES PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH, A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THESE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, PARTICULARLY TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WIND
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL AT MOST, RESULTING IN JUST
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND SOME AREAS ALONG THE DIVIDE.
POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK:
CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES AROUND 125% TO 175% OF NORMAL
LATER THIS WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS RELIANT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RESULTANT
SHIFT IN FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER,
THE RELIANCE ON THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY
OBVIOUS FORCING ON THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF OUR POTENTIAL MOISTURE PUSH. SO, BE
SURE TO STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THE WEEKEND FORECAST DEVELOPS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT DIURNAL
WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED MIDDLE TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GF
AVIATION...RJ/TGJT
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