404
FXUS65 KGJT 091733
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1133 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORE USUAL
SEASONAL VALUES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS:
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US IS GETTING
NUDGED BACK WEST BY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT
WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SOME DEEPER MIXING WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE TODAY
AND TOMORROW WHILE HUMIDITIES HOVER AROUND 10 TO 15%. HOWEVER, THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SO DESPITE THESE VALUES BEING
CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS, ONLY LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.
POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE:
AS FAR AS OUR NEXT MOISTURE PUSH, MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT PWATS
REACHING UPWARDS OF 150% OF NORMAL FOR THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS.
THIS REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE/TROUGH IN THE PACNW AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE ADVECTION
THANKS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. AS OF NOW THERE IS FAIR MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM STAYS TO OUR NORTH, BUT IT MAY DRIVE A
FRONT INTO THE REGION. ATTM THAT FRONT SEEMS WEAK AND DIFFUSE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES US. IF IT MANAGES TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE, WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIME WILL TELL,
HOWEVER, SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST FORECAST IF YOU HAVE ANY BIG
WEEKEND PLANS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY. GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE IN FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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