987
FXUS65 KGJT 100430
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1030 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORE USUAL
SEASONAL VALUES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
MOSTLY ZONAL, KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DEEP DAYTIME MIXING WILL TAP INTO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS, MIXING
DOWN AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, AND
DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BELOW 15%, THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MOISTURE PUSH FOR THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES ARE CROPPING UP IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. A
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY,
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
HELP TO SHIFT FLOW BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING PWAT VALUES OF
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THIS IS ONE
DISCREPANCY THAT IS CROPPING UP. THE ECENS HAS A LATER AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER MOISTURE PUSH COMPARED TO THE GEFS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE
QUESTION OF FORCING. ALL THIS MOISTURE IS NO GOOD IF THERE'S NOTHING
TO FORCE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM. AT THIS POINT, ASIDE FROM
FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHICS, THERE IS POTENTIALLY A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY TIME IT REACHES EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO, WHICH WILL LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT. IF THE
FRONT DOES HOLD TOGETHER, WE COULD SEE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
RETURN. EITHER WAY, CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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