574
FXUS65 KGJT 100533
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1133 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORE USUAL
SEASONAL VALUES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL, KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP DAYTIME MIXING WILL TAP INTO STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS, MIXING DOWN AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, AND DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BELOW 15%,
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MOISTURE PUSH FOR THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES ARE CROPPING UP IN TIMING AND INTENSITY.
A LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY,
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP TO SHIFT FLOW BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING PWAT
VALUES OF AROUND 150% OF NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THIS
IS ONE DISCREPANCY THAT IS CROPPING UP. THE ECENS HAS A LATER
AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER MOISTURE PUSH COMPARED TO THE GEFS. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS THE QUESTION OF FORCING. ALL THIS MOISTURE IS
NO GOOD IF THERE'S NOTHING TO FORCE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
AT THIS POINT, ASIDE FROM FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHICS,
THERE IS POTENTIALLY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY
TIME IT REACHES EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, WHICH WILL
LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT. IF THE FRONT DOES HOLD TOGETHER, WE
COULD SEE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY RETURN. EITHER WAY, CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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