563
FXUS65 KGJT 110431
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1031 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
- DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A SHIFT TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE 11/00Z H500 HAND ANALYSIS MAP IS SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE
REX PATTERN OVER THE E.PAC LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER
W.CANADA TO NEAR THE US BORDER. A JET MAX ALOFT IS MOVING OVER ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN STATES WHICH IS PULLING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING ACCORDING TO GOES ALPW.
THIS MOISTURE AS WEAK ASCENT FROM THE JET LOOKS TO AT LEAST PULL
SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHER TOWARD SUNRISE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES OF SOME SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND. THE
CAMS/RRFS ARE BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THIS AN HAVE INTRODUCES SOME
LOW END POPS THROUGH THE AM HOURS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFT MORE SOUTHWARD BY MID-DAY AND THROUGH
THE EVENING AS SUBTROP MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
4 CORNERS REGION ARRIVES. AGAIN THE ASCENT MAY BE COMING FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHICS AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHERN CWA TERRAIN BEFORE SETTLING DOWN THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. PROFILES SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
IN THE LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS CURRENTLY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
BEING MORE OF A THREAT THAN HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DRY AIR AND
BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON ALSO LOOK TO BRING LOCALIZED AREAS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER AND
SWINGS THROUGH THE PACNW THIS WEEKEND...SUBTROP HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHED OVER AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
GIVE A MORE DIRECT FEED OF MOISTURE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW
ALOFT. THE STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM NEAR THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. FORCING OVER OUR CWA LOOKS TIED MORE TO
OROGRAPHICS FOR STORM INITIATION ON SATURDAY WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND JET ALOFT BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE BETTER CHANCES COULD BE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING UNDERCUTTING THE ASCENT
ALOFT. PWAT DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO RUN SOME 150 TO 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THE SW
FETCH ALOFT WILL BE FROM A DRIER UPSTREAM SOURCE. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL THEN COOL MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT. A STATIC
PATTERN OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE PACNW AND DOWNSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US MEANS PERSISTENT MOIST SW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SO COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE'RE GETTING TO THAT TIME OF
YEAR WHEN OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BRING A SHORT-
LIVED DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE TOP OF THE PEAKS AT SUNRISE AS
WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT,
EXPECT LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AT KVEL AND KCNY BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GJT
AVIATION...RJ/GJT
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