813
FXUS65 KGJT 110539
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1139 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
- DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A SHIFT TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE 11/00Z H500 HAND ANALYSIS MAP IS SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE
REX PATTERN OVER THE E.PAC LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER
W.CANADA TO NEAR THE US BORDER. A JET MAX ALOFT IS MOVING OVER
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN STATES WHICH IS PULLING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING ACCORDING TO GOES
ALPW. THIS MOISTURE AS WEAK ASCENT FROM THE JET LOOKS TO AT
LEAST PULL SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHER TOWARD
SUNRISE WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES OF SOME SPRINKLES HITTING THE
GROUND. THE CAMS/RRFS ARE BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THIS AN HAVE
INTRODUCES SOME LOW END POPS THROUGH THE AM HOURS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-70. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFT MORE SOUTHWARD BY MID-
DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING AS SUBTROP MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION ARRIVES. AGAIN THE ASCENT
MAY BE COMING FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH OROGRAPHICS AND FAVOR THE SOUTHERN CWA TERRAIN BEFORE
SETTLING DOWN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. PROFILES SHOW A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS
STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS CURRENTLY. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING MORE OF A THREAT THAN HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON ALSO
LOOK TO BRING LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. AS
UPSTREAM TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER AND SWINGS THROUGH THE PACNW
THIS WEEKEND...SUBTROP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHED OVER AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL GIVE A MORE DIRECT FEED
OF MOISTURE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONGEST FORCING
REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM NEAR THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. FORCING OVER
OUR CWA LOOKS TIED MORE TO OROGRAPHICS FOR STORM INITIATION ON
SATURDAY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BRINGING SOME CHANCE
FOR STORMS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE AN
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND JET ALOFT BEGINS
TO SWING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE BETTER CHANCES
COULD BE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING
UNDERCUTTING THE ASCENT ALOFT. PWAT DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO
RUN SOME 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
CWA WHERE THE SW FETCH ALOFT WILL BE FROM A DRIER UPSTREAM
SOURCE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK TO STAY ABOVE
NORMAL THEN COOL MONDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT. A STATIC PATTERN OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE
PACNW AND DOWNSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US MEANS
PERSISTENT MOIST SW FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SO COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WE'RE GETTING TO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO BRING A SHORT- LIVED DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE TOP OF
THE PEAKS AT SUNRISE AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS
HIGHLIGHT TODAY'S FORECAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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