726
FXUS65 KGJT 111719
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1119 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
- DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A SHIFT TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
- COOL, WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM THROUGH SATURDAY:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH INTO
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LOWER LEVELS STILL REMAIN DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. HI RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME DRIER AIR AND MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY WITH BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS THIS HAPPENS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH TO NEGATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH
WINDS INCREASE. STILL LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM
THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER, CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACNW AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST ALLOWING BETTER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE HIGH POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SE U.S., KEEPING OUR CWA IN THAT
FAVORABLE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WE WILL HAVE A DIRECT TAP TO
THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB UP TOWARDS 180
TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL LATE SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH
AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
PARKED TO OUR NORTHWEST, KEEPING THAT DYNAMIC FORCING IN PLACE
EVEN THOUGH NO WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN. SO SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED
MOISTURE BY MONDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH HIGHS DROPPING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL, WET PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF FALL AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DUSTING
OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERIODIC AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
HIGHLIGHT TODAY'S FORECAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO
GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN SATURDAY
MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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