004
FXUS65 KGJT 131744
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1144 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL, GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, ROCKFALLS AND MUDSLIDES AT TIMES THIS WEEK.
- DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
BEFORE A SHIFT TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN THIS WEEK:
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN TERRAIN-DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE JET ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACNW HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THIS
MEANS THERE IS SOME SHEAR PRESENT, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THIS EVENING THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION TO MORE STRATIFORM WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS.
AS THAT LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT
A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. PWAT VALUES PEAK
OVER 200 PERCENT. THEREFORE EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO
INCREASE DURING THIS SURGE. THE HIGH-RES MODELS FOCUS SHOWERS NORTH
OF I-70 EARLY IN THE NIGHT THEN SOUTH OF I-70 LATE IN THE NIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING AND A WEAK FRONT.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING, ROCKFALLS AND MUDSLIDES. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-70 TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE THE
NORTH STARTS CLEARING OUT. THE MOISTURE MAY SOMEWHAT DECREASE, BUT
IT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON THE INSTABILITY. SO
PLACES THAT CLEAR OUT HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD SO SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OVER THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER LOW DROPS INTO THE PACNW.
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY KEEP THE MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK, SO EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE. ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A SUBTLE WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD
CERTAINLY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND. LATE IN THE WEEK, THE MODELS ARE
NOW AGREEING THAT THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF IN THE PACNW
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODEL PERFORMANCE IS TYPICAL POOR FOR
THESE CUT OFF LOWS, MAINLY HOW LONG THEY STICK AROUND. THIS
LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS IT
STANDS NOW THOUGH THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DUE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE AND MOISTURE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
STORMS DEVELOP AROUND 17Z, INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY MID
AFTERNOON. BRIEF DROPS IN VIS AND CIG ARE EXPECTED BELOW
STRONGER STORMS, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS BECOME MORE PROBABLE. OTHERWISE, GUSTS OF 20-28
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL
TERMINALS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...TGJT
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