207
FXUS65 KGJT 302352
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
552 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
- FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE OVER THE RAIN-SOAKED TERRAIN,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
WET WEATHER WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT:
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT BOUT OF WET WEATHER CENTERED IN
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
EAST/NORTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON, LEADING TO ONE FINAL ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH AN OVERCAST STRATUS
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE, ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NOT BE FAVORED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. INSTEAD, STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST.
GIVEN MUCH OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO HAS ALREADY RECEIVED WELL OVER
AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS, ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS A
RESULT, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WARM AND DRY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING BUT BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE SOUTH
OF I-70. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR, AND CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RAISE OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND MOISTURE, STRATUS AND
FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITHIN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS PARTICULARLY KDRO AND KGUC. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS BUT IS SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. IF THIS OCCURS EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE FOR THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
ONE LAST SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, OUR
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS REMAINS
ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RFC GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SECOND PEAK AT SEVERAL SITES, PEAKING
LATE THIS EVENING AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF CONTINUOUS RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
PART OF THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SOUTHWEST COLORADO. FORTUNATELY,
WATER LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED PREVIOUS HIGH WATER
MARKS. THAT BEING SAID, LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
COMMUNITIES UNTIL REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE POLO AND THE
CLOSED LOW COMPLETELY EXIT OUR REGION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ018-019-023.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...ERW
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