093
FXUS65 KGJT 010450
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1050 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TREND
UPWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS.
- QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE
BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
AS LOW PRESSURE FINALLY LIFTS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING, THE PERSISTENT STREAM OF REMNANT TROPICAL STORM
MOISTURE GOES WITH IT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WERE CANCELLED AS
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE. RAIN SOAKED PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, GIVEN
THE POOL OF SURFACE MOISTURE LAYING AROUND FROM 2 DAYS OF RAIN.
SHOULD FOG BUILD INTO THE AREA, THOSE LOCALES WILL HAVE TO WAIT
ON SUNSHINE UNTIL AROUND MID DAY. AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE NORMAL RANGE AND ABOVE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS OVER THE WEST. HIGHS
PEAK OUT SUNDAY AROUND 5-10 DEGREES OVER NORMAL. LIGHT WINDS AND
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER NICE WEEKEND
FOR LEAF PEEPERS.
A COUPLE OF FEATURES MATERIALIZE IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THAT HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. NOTHING IN THE
FORM OF A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT EMERGES THOUGH. A PINCHED OFF
LOW/OPEN WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, WHATEVER IS LEFT OF HURRICANE RACHEL LURKS ALONG THE
BAJA COAST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES TO LIFT A PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SETTING OFF SOME SHOWERS ON
THE SAN JUANS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY TENTATIVE SOLUTION, BUT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SELLING IT OVER SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THIS
TREND CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON THE MOUNTAINS. THERE'S A LOT OF ROOM
FOR THIS FORECAST TO COME APART BY THEN, SO WE'LL HOLD OFF ON
BOLD PREDICTIONS AND ENJOY A FEW DAYS OF MILD FALL WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING BUT BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE SOUTH
OF I-70. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR, AND CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RAISE OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND MOISTURE, STRATUS AND
FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITHIN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS PARTICULARLY KDRO AND KGUC. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS BUT IS SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. IF THIS OCCURS EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE FOR THURSDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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