395
FXUS65 KGJT 011750
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TREND
UPWARD TO ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
- QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE
BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WE'LL SEE A PATTERN
SHIFT WITH MUCH DRIER WEATHER THAN WE'VE HAD FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
HERE'S THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT FOR THE HAY FARMERS AND RANCHERS,
NOW IS PROBABLY THE BEST TIME FOR THE LAST HAY CUTTING. DAYS ARE
GETTING SHORTER, TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING COOLER, AND THE FALL IS
NOT KNOWN FOR LONG DRY SPELLS. THAT BEING SAID, DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY RUNNING 25% IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS TO 35% IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE GROUND, WILL LIKELY SEE DEW EACH
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SECOND LATER IN THE
WEEK BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT
THE HIGHER VALLEYS COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS UP
NORTH ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
NOW FOR THE SYNOPTIC VIEW, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA, THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUANS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC MONDAY THAT WILL PICK UP
THE MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING 22-35% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC, BUT IT IS A LONG WAYS
OUT AND THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK. FOR THE
MOST PART, THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY NICE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO, SO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT ALONG WITH THE FALL COLORS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES SUCH AS KDRO AND KGUC BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...RJ/TGJT
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