488
FXUS65 KGJT 040352
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
952 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY ON SUNDAY, AS SOME MOISTURE
CIRCULATES THROUGH OUR AREA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. FORCING
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE, BUT
DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
MOST ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES OCCURRING NORTH OF I-70.
WORKWEEK OUTLOOK:
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S FORECAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WHILE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE WITHIN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE COULD SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MORE OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, BUT BOTH FORCING AND MOISTURE DO NOT LOOK SUBSTANTIAL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. AFTER TUESDAY, WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS THE DAILY FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD REGION-
WIDE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW
AFTER 18Z. THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY STORMS PASSING OVER TEX
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF, RAINFALL MAY OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR WITHIN THE TERMINAL'S VICINITY. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
TO NONE THOUGH.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GF/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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