421
FXUS65 KGJT 041117
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
517 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD, DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- ISOLATED LIGHT TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE PATTERN WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH AND
WEAKER GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE SOUTH. THE PWATS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 0.70 INCHES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK LIMITING ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TO
REMAIN LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THE GFS INDICATED AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE HIGH THIS EVENING THAT
SUPPORTED ISOLATED LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS, BUT THE
MODELS SHOW THE HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STRENGTHENING TOMORROW
INTO MONDAY TO SUPPRESS THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THOUGH WE CAN'T RULE OUT
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WE CAN EXPECT THEM TO BE ISOLATED
AND LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS TO THE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSITS THE REGION
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY ALONG THE DIVIDE
WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SAN JUANS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF CHANCE COMING NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A DEEP TROUGH DESCENDING DOWN THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE REGION BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT MILD DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUANS AFTER 18Z. THOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY STORMS PASSING OVER TEX IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF, RAINFALL MAY OCCASIONALLY OCCUR WITHIN THE
TERMINAL'S VICINITY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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