554
FXUS65 KGJT 041754
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1154 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD, DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- ISOLATED LIGHT TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS ARE
POSSIBLE DAILY WITH TUESDAY HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WARM AND DRY WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW:
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND WILL
REMAIN CENTERED THERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. TOMORROW THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY. GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TOMORROW WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THE MOST ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. LINGERING MOISTURE CIRCULATING WITHIN THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, PRIMARILY OVER THE SAN JUANS.
PATTERN CHANGE ON TUESDAY:
ON TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA,
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MOSTLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL DO
NOT LOOK SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THOUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY CONCERNS AT KTEX.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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