661
FXUS65 KGJT 050510
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1110 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST OF THE REGION WILL GENERALLY STAY DRY THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THIS WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
- ISOLATED AND LIGHT TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS
ARE POSSIBLE DAILY WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVING THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
- A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
DRY VALLEYS. ISOLATED RAINFALL IN THE SAN JUANS:
DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SAN JUANS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS THANKS TO ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WHICH HAS
SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORTIVE
FORCING OR LIFT, STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SPARSE AND ON THE
WEAKER SIDE. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS A SHORTWAVE DESCENDING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. BY TUESDAY, WE'LL SIT IN ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE, AND WHILE A SLIGHT BOLSTERING OF UPPER-
LEVEL DYNAMICS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IT ONLY APPEARS TO MODESTLY BOOST STORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, THIS PATTERN KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA, PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
PATTERN SHIFTS BEYOND FRIDAY:
WE'VE BEEN EYING A STRONGER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
STRONG TROUGH EXPECTED TO SKIRT ACROSS THE PACNW AND,
EVENTUALLY, PARTS OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO THIS
POINT TO PINPOINT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS IS IMPROVING. WE'RE STILL SEEING TOO
MUCH DISAGREEMENT TO DRAW ANY STRONG CONCLUSIONS, BUT CLUSTERS
HAVE BEGUN TO MORE HEAVILY FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO WITH
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY (AND PERHAPS
BEYOND). JET SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRESENT DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL, THOUGH ITS STRENGTH IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS
EITHER, SO THAT REMAINS A MAJOR QUESTION MARK AS WELL. KEEP AN
EYE ON THE FORECAST THIS WEEK TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE SHIFTS
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS LEAVING VFR FIRMLY IN CONTROL. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT IMPACTS TO NEARBY
TAF SITES ARE EXTREMELY LOW AND NOT PLACED IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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