775
FXUS65 KGJT 052322
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE MORE SEASONAL
NORMS.
- A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. ISOLATED RAIN OVER THE SAN JUANS:
MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING TO KICK OFF THIS
CONVECTION. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SOME OF THE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT DYNAMICS AND
LIFT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK SO NOT TOO CONCERNED. LOOK FOR SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING, TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.
AS WE REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE MORE SEASONAL VALUES.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEKEND:
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND A
RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND. A
CLOSED LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW AND AS
THIS OCCURS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AS THE LOW REACHES THE NV BORDER AND STARTS TRACKING
EASTWARD. AS OF NOW, THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT, ANY CHANGES TO THE LOW
TRACK, AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD CHANGE
THE GOING FORECAST. SUFFICE TO SAY, CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE
MAKING A RETURN WITH THE FINER DETAILS STILL A BIT HAZY. KEEP AN
EYE ON THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ALL THE UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS WILL IMPACT KTEX, THEREFORE
INCLUDED A PROB30.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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