440
FXUS65 KGJT 060546
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1146 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE MORE SEASONAL
NORMS.
- A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT COUPLE DAYS:
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 OR SO HOURS. WITH MOISTURE STILL SITTING
ABOVE NORMAL, THIS ADDED FORCING WILL PROMOTE AN UPTICK IN
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS ADDED SUPPORT LOOKS TOO WEAK TO PROMPT
MANY STRONGER STORMS. REGARDLESS, PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS COULD SEE ISOLATED WETTING RAINS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY. VALLEYS SHOULD STAY DRY. THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY, LEAVING US UNDERNEATH VERY WEAK
FLOW THAT WILL ONLY SERVE TO CONTINUE VERY SPARSE SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. OTHERWISE,
WE ARE STILL RUNNING HOTTER THAN NORMAL, UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN PLACES, AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK:
WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN A PATTERN SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN
FROM THE PACNW. HOWEVER, WE HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT IN CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING OF THE GREATEST SURGE OF MOISTURE, RANGING
ANYTIME FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT
STANDS, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THE STRONGEST PUSH OF
MOISTURE (AND RESULTING RAINFALL) CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY ACROSS SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS IS KEEPING CLARITY OF
THE FINER DETAILS AT A MINIMUM. REGARDLESS, IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY
AT THIS POINT THAT WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN SPITE OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TIMING, LOCATION, AND STRENGTH. KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST
FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS WE KEEP
AWAITING BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70. BREAKPOINT CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SOME TUESDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. INCLUDED PROB30 LANGUAGE IN
TAFS AT KASE, KGUC, AND KTEX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN. SOME SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE NOT
LIKELY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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