923
FXUS65 KGJT 221915
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
115 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
- FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH.
- MODELED RESPONSES SUGGEST SEVERAL RIVERS REACHING BANKFULL OR
HIGHER AT RIVER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND
SOUTHEAST UTAH.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY,
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THAT THREAT BEGINS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
TODAY + FRIDAY:
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION, WHICH IS
WORKING TO CONTINUOUSLY ADVECT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. CERTAIN LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH ARE ALREADY OVERPERFORMING THE
FORECAST, WHICH MEANS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING/FLOODING IS ONGOING
IN SOME AREAS, IF NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR. PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY
WEATHER AWARE IN THE COMING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THESE RAIN SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. AS
WE APPROACH SUNSET, THE THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES AND SHOWERS APPEAR TO SHIFT TO MORE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DON'T STAY AWAY FOR LONG AS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH A
NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND + NEXT WEEK:
MODELS STAY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE TIMING AND
SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, THEREFORE THERE ARE STILL UNKNOWNS. ALL IN ALL,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
AS WE MOVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE THE REGION BY
MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE WILL BE SEEING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT A TIME. KEEP IN MIND, THIS
IS STILL FAR OUT, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS MATTER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TODAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON UNDER THE STRONGER
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND DOWN TO
IFR THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR MOST
TAF SITES THANKS TO THOSE LOWERED CEILING AND VISIBILITIES.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOWS IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 10-12Z FRIDAY, IF NOT BEFORE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE INFLUX
OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND RIVER
FLOODING DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH CONTINUE TO
OVERPERFORM THE FORECAST, THEREFORE FLOODING IS ONGOING IN SOME
LOCATIONS, IF NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE COMING HOURS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS, EXTENDING WEST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
UTAH WHERE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUANS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. AN
ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS OF RAIN ON SNOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF MAKING IT INTO THE WATERWAYS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST
ABOVE 12-13 KFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MELTING OF SOME OF THE EXISTING EARLY-SEASON SNOW
PACK. THE COMBINED RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND RAIN-ON-SNOW WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID RISE IN MANY OF OUR CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS.
MODELED RESPONSES SUGGEST SEVERAL RIVERS REACHING BANKFULL OR
HIGHER AT RIVER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND
SOUTHEAST UTAH. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MINOR FLOODING AND
RELATED IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER, PIEDRA,
ANIMAS, LA PLATA RIVERS AND ABOVE VALLECITO RESERVOIR. THE MOST
RECENT RIVER FORECASTS FOR THE SAN JUAN RIVER NEAR PAGOSA
SPRINGS ARE DEPICTING THE RIVER TO REACH THE MAJOR FLOODING
THRESHOLD, WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 13.82 FT AND STREAMFLOWS
JUST OVER 7650 CFS. ADDITIONALLY, OTHER CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES
WITHIN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE. ALL RIVER
RESPONSES ARE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FALLS, SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ019-021>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...ERW/TGJT
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