095
FXUS65 KGJT 230552
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1152 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS HAVE ALREADY REACHED FLOOD
STAGE DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL, AND MODELED RESPONSES
SUGGEST SEVERAL OTHERS WILL DO THE SAME OVERNIGHT.
- IMPACTS FROM HIGH WATER LEVELS AND FLOODING MAY BE SEEN
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY.
- A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE:
WE'RE PAST THE PEAK IN MOISTURE, HENCE WHY RAINFALL HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO A DEGREE. REGARDLESS, SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME AREAS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, AND AS
DAYTIME HEATING PICKS UP TOMORROW, LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND A FEW DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY AROUND
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY DIMINISHED
THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS, BUT AS THE FORECAST STANDS,
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS TO DEVELOP. THIS THREAT DOES NOT
OVERSHADOW THE ONGOING HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. EVEN AS WE BEGIN TO
EXIT THIS WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM-TYPE RAIN PATTERN, CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO THE PLETHORA OF
RAIN WHICH HAS FALLEN, KEEPING THE CONCERNS FOR RIVER FLOODING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PROMPT FLASH FLOODING,
EVEN IN LESS FLASHY AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF SOILS.
THE WEEKEND + NEXT WEEK:
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CLOSED
LOW DESCENDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS
LOCKS IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS MOISTURE
IS MORE YOUR STANDARD SUB-TROPICAL FLOW AND LESS LIKE WHAT WE
ARE CURRENTLY ENDURING. THIS LEAVES PWAT'S MORE AROUND 200% OF
NORMAL, WHICH, ALTHOUGH LESS THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, IS STILL
PLENTY TO PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN THIS
SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL COMING SO QUICKLY, THE SATURATED ATMOSPHERE
WILL LIKELY LEAN TOWARDS DENSER MORNING CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD
DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT MOST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SURROUNDING AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN SUCH
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MONTH THAT IT MAY NOT
TAKE MUCH, EVEN FROM STRATIFORM RAIN, TO SPARK ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. WE'LL FOREGO SPECULATING
ON ADDITIONAL DETAILS FOR THE TIME BEING AS SOME OF OUR FORECAST
MAY BE DICTATED BY HOW FRIDAY PLAYS OUT. STAY UP TO DATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS WEEKEND'S
ACTIVE WEATHER.
AS WE MOVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE THE REGION
BY MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE WILL BE SEEING COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT A TIME. KEEP IN MIND,
THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY FAR OUT, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THIS MATTER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR THOUGH
COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN SEEN EARLIER. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST TAF SITES DUE TO LOWER CIGS
AND OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VIS UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.
AFTER 12Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, WITH A MARKED
IMPROVEMENT NOTED AFTER 18Z. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON OF 20 TO 25KTS AS CLEARING SKIES ALLOW MIXING OF
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
INFLUX OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND RIVER FLOODING DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVER GAUGES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH OVERPERFORMED THE
FORECAST TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO ADAPT TO THESE SHIFTS IN THE
FORECAST, WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WITH ADDITIONAL RISES IN
WATER LEVEL RISES. SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING
NOTABLE FLOODING ISSUES, AND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SEVERAL
OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD ANTICIPATE SIMILAR CONCERNS TO ARISE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS, EXTENDING WEST
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS OF RAIN ON SNOW
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF MAKING IT INTO THE WATERWAYS. SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST ABOVE 12-13 KFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MELTING OF SOME OF THE EXISTING
EARLY-SEASON SNOW PACK. THE COMBINED RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND RAIN-
ON-SNOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID RISE IN MANY OF OUR CREEKS,
STREAMS AND RIVERS.
MODELED RESPONSES SUGGEST SEVERAL RIVERS REACHING BANKFULL OR
HIGHER AT RIVER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND
SOUTHEAST UTAH. THE SAN JUAN RIVER NEAR PAGOSA SPRINGS CONTINUES
TO BE OF THE GREATEST CONCERN AS IT HAS ALREADY REACHED THE
MAJOR FLOODING THRESHOLD AS OF THIS EVENING. WATER LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A
FORECASTED CREST OF NEARLY 15 FT AND STREAMFLOWS OVER 9000 CFS.
ADDITIONALLY, OTHER CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES WITHIN THE FOUR
CORNERS ARE REMAINS SUSCEPTIBLE. AS ANOTHER NOTE, WE'VE BEGUN
TO SEE EVIDENCE THAT THE DOLORES RIVER WILL EXCEED THE MODERATE
FLOODING THRESHOLD AS IT NEARS THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE COLORADO
RIVER. ALL RIVER RESPONSES ARE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FALLS, SO PLEASE MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. REMEMBER, EVEN AFTER RAINFALL
HAS ENDED, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
RISE BEFORE WATER LEVELS ALLEVIATE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COZ017>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...ERW/TGJT
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