440
FXUS65 KGJT 232322
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- MANY RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR CREST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
- A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
ONGOING FLOODING
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE RECENT
RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. THIS
HAS KEPT US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, HAIL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS
REGION, WHICH IS ALREADY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE GROUND
IS VERY SATURATED IT MIGHT NOT TAKE MUCH MORE RAINFALL TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THAT HAPPENS IT
WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL SEE AN
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
TOMORROW. THE COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME EXPANDS TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. THIS MEANS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FOR PLACES THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 0.5-1.0 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 160 CORRIDOR WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO. TRAINING STORMS COULD RESULT IN
1-3 INCHES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE FLOODING AND A
CONTINUATION OF ONGOING FLOODING. THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY SO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
AS WE MOVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE THE REGION
BY MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE WILL BE SEEING COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT A TIME. KEEP IN MIND,
THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY FAR OUT, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THIS MATTER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
A LULL IN MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE IN, REDUCING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER REGION-WIDE. THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF TODAY AND THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW THOUGH, WITH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL HIGHEST AT TEX AND DRO. HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS (NAMELY ASE, EGE, AND RIL) WILL BE AT RISK OF CIGS
DROPPING BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS SHOULD STORMS PASS OVERHEAD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL CONCERN IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL HAZARDS THROUGH SATURDAY INCLUDE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND RIVER FLOODING DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVER GAUGES ARE
NEAR OR PAST CREST, BUT A FEW DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH CREST UNTIL TOMORROW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY
AND TOMORROW IN AND AROUND THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ADDITIONAL
CONCERN IS OF RAIN ON SNOW LEADING TO MORE RUNOFF MAKING IT INTO
THE WATERWAYS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST AROUND 11-13 KFT, WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MELTING OF SOME OF THE EXISTING EARLY-
SEASON SNOW PACK. THE COMBINED RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND RAIN-ON-
SNOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID RISE IN MANY OF OUR CREEKS, STREAMS
AND RIVERS. IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS MANY OF THE STREAMS AND
RIVERS COULD EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL CRESTS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COZ017>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page