322
FXUS65 KGJT 241949
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
149 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN FULL, WITH A FEW CRESTING ALREADY AND
SOME EXPECTED TO CREST LATER THIS EVENING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
LOCAL FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD SEE SOME SNOW ON ROADWAYS LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WATER
LOGGED SOILS AND BANK FULL RIVERS CONTINUE TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
RISK. MANY RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE TODAY. HOWEVER, PORTIONS
OF THE SAN JUAN AND DOLORES RIVERS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
FROM SMALLER BASINS IMPACT THEIR FLOWS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE LEFT ACTIVE UNTIL THIS RUNOFF
THREAT HAS SAFELY PASSED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
TRAIN NORTHWARD ALONG THE STATE LINE. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME
STEEP PRECIPITATION RATES IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. HI RES
MODELS ARE KEEN TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS. WHILE SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WRAP INTO THE LOW, THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE VULNERABILITY OF SATURATED WATERSHEDS IN
SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO. A FEW RIVERS THAT RECEDED TODAY
COULD SEE A RETURN UPWARD AS ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INCREASES THEIR
FLOWS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 9 TO 10K OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD LEAVE SOME SNOW ON MOUNTAIN PASSES AT ROAD LEVEL.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DRIER AIR NOSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHIP
AWAY AT RAIN RATES, BUT A FEW PRODUCTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONGER RAINFALL COULD EASILY OVERWHELM THIS DRY SIGNATURE.
WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, GIVEN
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS ON SUNDAY. MODELS EJECT THE LOW OUT OF THE
ROCKIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WRAPPED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME SNOW FLYING ON OUR MOUNTAIN PASSES EARLY
MONDAY. COMMUTERS AND TRAVELERS ON RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES
CAN EXPECT SOME SNOW EARLY MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS DON'T LOOK TO
BE A PROBLEM, BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF FORECAST
UPDATES.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND BROAD ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE WEST WILL
DELIVER A WEAK CLIPPER WAVE TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, INCLUDING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE UINTAS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF CO. A STORM DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SEND HEIGHTS UPWARD, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
UNDER THIS WARMER REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
INTRODUCING SOME STRONGER WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK TOO, AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS SYSTEM WILL POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY IF A STRONGER SHOWER/CELL MOVES OVERHEAD AND DROPS
VIS/CIGS. DESPITE THAT, DO ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
PREDOMINANT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
UNDER ANY CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL HAZARDS THROUGH SATURDAY INCLUDE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND RIVER FLOODING DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVER GAUGES ARE
NEAR OR PAST CREST, BUT A FEW DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH CREST UNTIL SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUANS WITH 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS OF RAIN ON SNOW LEADING TO MORE RUNOFF
MAKING IT INTO THE WATERWAYS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST AROUND
11-13 KFT, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MELTING OF SOME OF THE
EXISTING EARLY-SEASON SNOW PACK. THE COMBINED RUNOFF FROM RAIN
AND RAIN-ON-SNOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID RISE IN MANY OF OUR
CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS. IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS MANY OF THE
STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL CRESTS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COZ017>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
DISCUSSION...LTB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page