544
FXUS65 KGJT 251759
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1159 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN FULL, WITH A FEW CRESTING ALREADY AND
SOME EXPECTED TO CREST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
LOCAL FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON ROADWAYS TONIGHT,
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS COOL AND WET REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS, PUMPING
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS, AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 9-10K FEET.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT IT COULD LEAD
TO SLIPPERY COMMUTES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN PASSES SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE RAIN RATES REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTRIBUTE MORE RUNOFF INTO THE ALREADY WATERLOGGED RIVERS AND
STREAMS. WHILE A NUMBER OF RIVERS HAVE ALREADY CRESTED AND ARE ON
THEIR WAY DOWN, A FEW RIVERS, PARTICULARLY THE SAN JUAN RIVER
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH, CONTINUE TO RISE. A
FLOOD WATCH, AND A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS, REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO CAPTURE THE EXPECTED CRESTS IN THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS.
DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
BRING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
REINVIGORATES SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AGAIN, LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT PASSES COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SLIPPERY
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DIVIDE.
THIS LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER WILL JUST BRUSH OUR NORTHERN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHERN COLORADO
DIVIDE. BEHIND THIS CLIPPER, ZONAL FLOW TAKES CONTROL, BRINGING
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS START OUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, CLIMBING TO NEAR-NORMAL BY THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. BY FRIDAY, FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A
MOISTER SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
WEST COAST, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR BEYOND THIS POINT, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AROUND SHOWERS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST ALONG THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG UP WEST OF THE DIVIDE OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
SOME BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS AT KEGE AND KASE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY TONIGHT
COULD SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
LEFTOVER SURFACE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND. THIS WILL KEEP
BREAKPOINT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN PLACE INTO MID DAY MONDAY,
SHOULD FOG DEVELOP.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS HAVE
RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL
HAZARDS THROUGH SUNDAY INCLUDE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND RIVER FLOODING DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
SEVERAL RIVER GAUGES ARE ALREADY PAST CREST, BUT A FEW DOWNSTREAM
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CREST THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ018-019-021>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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