089
FXUS65 KGJT 251836
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1236 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST UTAH, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LOCAL
FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD SEE MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON ROADWAYS
BY MONDAY MORNING.
- MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT
ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING TODAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF MODERATE RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. COLDER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AGAIN, LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT PASSES
COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DIVIDE.
THIS LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER WILL JUST BRUSH OUR NORTHERN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHERN COLORADO
DIVIDE. BEHIND THIS CLIPPER, ZONAL FLOW TAKES CONTROL, BRINGING
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS START OUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, CLIMBING TO NEAR-NORMAL BY THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. BY FRIDAY, FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A
MOISTER SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
WEST COAST, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR BEYOND THIS POINT, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AROUND SHOWERS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST ALONG THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG UP WEST OF THE DIVIDE OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
SOME BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS AT KEGE AND KASE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY TONIGHT
COULD SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
LEFTOVER SURFACE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND. THIS WILL KEEP
BREAKPOINT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN PLACE INTO MID DAY MONDAY,
SHOULD FOG DEVELOP.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOODING STAGE ALTHOUGH MAJOR
FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN SOUTHEAST UTAH,
WHICH CONTINUES INTO LATE MONDAY. SCATTERED AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE MAIN RIVERS
SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF A RESPONSE TO THESE SHOWERS TODAY, AND IF
THEY DO THEY WILL BE MINOR RISES. CONDITIONS ARE DRY MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ018-019-021>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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