788
FXUS65 KGJT 260420
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING AND HIGH FLOWS ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IS ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
- MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD SEE MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON ROADWAYS
BY MONDAY MORNING AS THIS STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.
- MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT
ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HI-RES CAMS INDICATE MOST ACTIVITY
WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT AND MOVING ONTO THE FRONT RANGE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. WE COULD HOWEVER STILL SEE SOME
LINGERING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW. VERY LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS COULD BE SLICK IN THE
MORNING OVER THE PASSES.
DRIER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD MONDAY.
A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FROM THE PACNW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MID WEEK AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH A WARMUP TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND:
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE OFF THE
PACIFIC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH
REGARDS TO HOW TO HANDLE THIS INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BUT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE
FRONT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE JURY IS OUT ON WHAT
THIS MEANS FOR OUR WEATHER. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO TURN MORE
UNSETTLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC, THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS ON TIMING, HOW COLD
IT MIGHT GET, AND THE DURATION OF SAID MOISTURE AS SOME OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN
EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT BUT DUE TO POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT AND POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY, WILL HOLD OFF ON
DISCUSSING TOO MUCH DETAIL YET. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
WATCH, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, WITH ONLY SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS LINGERING. KASE/KEGE/KRIL
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CEILINGS CLOSE TO ILS BREAKPOINTS THROUGH
12Z TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE SKIES CLEAR. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH,
SKIES WILL CLEAR SOONER, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS. KDRO, KGUC, AND KTEX IN PARTICULAR ARE
LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR/IFR IN PASSING
SHOWERS OR UNDER FOG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE ALTHOUGH MODERATE
FLOODING IS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH AS THE PEAK CRESTS THAT WENT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
YESTERDAY EVENING ARE PROGRESSING THROUGH BLUFF AS OF SUNDAY
EVENING AND ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS MEXICAN HAT. THE HIGH
FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY BEFORE WATERS
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. CONDITIONS ARE DRY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ018-019-021>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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