379
FXUS65 KGJT 261725
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1125 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING AND HIGH FLOWS ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IS ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
- MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD SEE MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON ROADWAYS
BY MONDAY MORNING AS THIS STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.
- MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT
ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HI-RES CAMS INDICATE MOST ACTIVITY
WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT AND MOVING ONTO THE FRONT RANGE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. WE COULD HOWEVER STILL SEE SOME
LINGERING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW. VERY LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS COULD BE SLICK IN THE
MORNING OVER THE PASSES.
DRIER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD MONDAY.
A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FROM THE PACNW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MID WEEK AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH A WARMUP TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND:
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE OFF THE
PACIFIC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH
REGARDS TO HOW TO HANDLE THIS INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BUT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE
FRONT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE JURY IS OUT ON WHAT
THIS MEANS FOR OUR WEATHER. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO TURN MORE
UNSETTLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC, THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS ON TIMING, HOW COLD
IT MIGHT GET, AND THE DURATION OF SAID MOISTURE AS SOME OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN
EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT BUT DUE TO POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT AND POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY, WILL HOLD OFF ON
DISCUSSING TOO MUCH DETAIL YET. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
WATCH, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
DENSE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP LATE THIS MORNING, AND BY
THE AFTERNOON WE EXPECT FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BE RESTORED AT ALL
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MARGINALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY AGAIN SEE DENSE STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY ASE, EGE, DRO, GUC, HDN, AND VEL. TAF'S INCLUDE
SCATTERED LOWER CIGS FOR THESE TERMINALS AS A RESULT. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AND IF THEY WILL BECOME BROKEN OR
OVERCAST FOR ANY PERIOD, BUT CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS ARE AT
RISK OF BRIEFLY REACHING ILS BREAKPOINTS AROUND SUNRISE. AS IT
STANDS NOW THOUGH, FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE THE
LIKELIEST SCENARIO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE ALTHOUGH MODERATE
FLOODING IS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH AS THE PEAK CRESTS THAT WENT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
YESTERDAY EVENING ARE PROGRESSING THROUGH BLUFF AS OF SUNDAY
EVENING AND ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS MEXICAN HAT. THE HIGH
FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY BEFORE WATERS
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. CONDITIONS ARE DRY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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