584
FXUS65 KGJT 261952
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
152 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING AND HIGH FLOWS ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER CONTINUE FOR
SOUTHEAST UTAH INTO TUESDAY.
- MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT
ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
- MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACKS,
LEADING TO INCONSISTENCIES IN MOISTURE VOLUME FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST SLOPE TODAY, AS WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE INVADES. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCH UP TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES BY WEEK'S END. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HELP WITH FLOOD WATERS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WORKING ACROSS THE PACNW ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO
NORTHWEST CO. NON ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD BRING AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR FLURRY TO THE HIGH COUNTRY UP THERE, BUT
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
LATE THURSDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM THAT DROPS
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PACNW COAST. PRESENTLY, THIS SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RAMP UP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN THE
FORECASTS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THIS SYSTEM. STORM TRACKS AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR ARE AN EARLY
POINT OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST. MODEL RUNS HAVE ALREADY
PUSHED IMPACTS FURTHER OUT THAN INITIAL RUNS WERE PROJECTING.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING 50/50 CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SATURATED SOILS FROM THIS WEEKEND'S STORMS MAKE THIS A MUCH MORE
IMPACTFUL FORECAST, AS LOW END RAINFALL TOTALS COULD PUSH
STREAMS BACK TOWARDS ACTION STAGE. FOR NOW, THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE PUSH ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
AROUND 10000 FEET, WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST STORM,
LEAVING THE BULK OF LOWER ELEVATIONS IN RAINFALL. THIS IS A
DEVELOPING FORECAST AND WILL BECOME MORE REFINED AS DETAILS
EMERGE FROM THE MODELS, GIVING MORE CLARITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
DENSE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP LATE THIS MORNING, AND BY
THE AFTERNOON WE EXPECT FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BE RESTORED AT ALL
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MARGINALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY AGAIN SEE DENSE STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY ASE, EGE, DRO, GUC, HDN, AND VEL. TAF'S INCLUDE
SCATTERED LOWER CIGS FOR THESE TERMINALS AS A RESULT. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AND IF THEY WILL BECOME BROKEN OR
OVERCAST FOR ANY PERIOD, BUT CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS ARE AT
RISK OF BRIEFLY REACHING ILS BREAKPOINTS AROUND SUNRISE. AS IT
STANDS NOW THOUGH, FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE THE
LIKELIEST SCENARIO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE ALTHOUGH FLOODING
IS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN SOUTHEAST UTAH AS
THE PEAK CRESTS ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH FLOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WATERS RECEDE BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. CONDITIONS ARE DRY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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