811
FXUS65 KGJT 271234
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
634 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING AND HIGH FLOWS ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER CONTINUE TO
FALL AND SHOULD BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING IN
MOST AREAS.
- MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
- MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACKS,
LEADING TO INCONSISTENCIES IN MOISTURE AND RIVER VOLUME
FORECASTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THE SAN JUAN RIVER NEAR BLUFF UT HAS DROPPED BELOW ACTION STAGE
AND CONTINUES TO FALL AS DO MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE
AREA. THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THIS REASON. THOUGH THE
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RECEDING AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT, THEY CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL STREAM FLOW POSING DANGERS TO ANYONE IN AND AROUND THE
WATER AS WELL AS SOME AREAS HAVE RESIDUAL WATER FROM PAST
FLOODING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
THIS EVENING'S H500 HAND ANALYSIS MAP SHOWS ONE SYSTEM DIGGING
THROUGH THE PACNW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER ON ITS
HEELS JUST OFF THE COAST. THESE SYSTEMS REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH
AS THEY SWING EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. OVERALL DENDRITIC
SATURATION LOOKS TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR CWA THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES
COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH MOUNTAINS NEAR THE WY
BORDER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN TO TREND WETTER AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH LATITUDE PATTERN LOOKS TO FOLD OVER ITSELF AND
CLOSE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW OFF THE PACNW BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST AT THIS TIME WITH THE STRONG
POLAR JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PACNW LOW WHILE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM IS DIRECTED ACROSS THE BAJA TO THE 4 CORNERS. THIS
SOUTHERLY STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PULL SUBTROP MOISTURE BACK INTO
OUR AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE UPSTREAM SPLIT
BREAKS DOWN AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE RESULTANT
STRONGER UPSTREAM JET WILL FORCE ANOTHER HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PLUME
OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWAT IS ONCE AGAIN
250-350 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS IT MOVES INTO AZ EARLY SUNDAY. HOW
THE PATTERN ULTIMATELY DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON WHERE THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED. THE CONSENSUS AT THE MOMENT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
ANOMALOUS MOSITURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS BUT
OUR SOUTHERN CWA WILL ONCE AGAIN GET BRUSHED WITH PWAT 200-250
PERCENT OF NORMAL LATE SATURDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY. SATURATED
SOILS FROM A VERY WET OCTOBER AND ESPECIALLY THIS LAST EVENT
WILL MAKE THIS A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL FORECAST. RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH STREAMS BACK TOWARDS ACTION STAGE. SNOW
LEVELS OF 9500 TO 10000 FEET WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE BULK OF
MID AND LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAINFALL.
STAY TUNED AS FORECASTS BECOME BETTER REFINED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KHDN AND KTEX. THERE ARE
SOME LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR KHDN, KEGE, KRIL AND KGUC, BUT
HAVE HAD NO REPORTS OF FOG/STRATUS AT THESE SITES. STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT THESE SITES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE. FLOODING IS STILL
ONGOING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN SOUTHEAST UTAH BUT THE
CREST HAS OCCURRED AT BLUFF AND THE RIVER CONTINUES TO TREND
DOWNWARD AND SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNRISE.
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO
FALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. PLEASE STAY AWARE OF LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENT ON
THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...DB
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...DB/TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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