599
FXUS63 KGLD 170932
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
232 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS WITH SNOW COVER (FAR WESTERN KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE
COUNTIES, CO) WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN (~1") POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER AND/OR APPRECIABLE
IMPACTS ARE PRESENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
- NEAR 0F WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN
CWA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
SNOWPACK IN COLORADO: AN EXPANSIVE ~20,000 SQ MI SNOWPACK (~100
MI WIDE W-E AND ~225 MI LONG N-S) PERSISTS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.. EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES (CO).. WHERE
LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DAILY MELTING/REFREEZING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
TODAY: A NEBULOUS /ILL-DEFINED/ PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA TODAY.. AS THE NORTHERNMOST /PROGRESSIVE/ PORTION
OF A SHEARED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO AND
THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION /NEWLY DEVELOPED CLOSED LOW INVOF BAJA,
CA/ DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY --
A CONSEQUENCE OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION LATE YESTERDAY EVENING AND
EARLY THIS MORNING.
MONDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO -- AND
AN ASSOCIATED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE -- WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NNE
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS (~12Z MON) TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY (~00Z
TUE). GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING AND NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE, THOUGH.. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO
EXACTLY WHERE /LONGITUDE-WISE/ THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK (E.G.
THROUGH CENTRAL KS OR EASTERN KS) ALONG WITH A FEW DETAILS ON
CYCLONE CONSOLIDATION AND MATURATION.. WHICH MAY, IN PART, BE A
FUNCTION OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THE CYCLONE TRACK IS ON THE WESTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE (ALTUS => WOODWARD => SALINA) -- SIMILAR TO THE
MOST RECENT (00Z 11/17) ECMWF SOLUTION -- MUCH OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WOULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL (~1.00"),
THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z MON AND 00Z TUE.
IF THE CYCLONE TRACK IS ON THE EASTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE
(KINGFISHER => WICHITA => MANHATTAN) -- SIMILAR TO THE MOST
RECENT (00Z 11/17) GFS SOLUTION -- PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WOULD BE FAR LIGHTER AND
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA (E.G. EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). REGARDLESS.. HAZARDOUS
WEATHER AND/OR APPRECIABLE IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
GOODLAND CWA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE LONG-TERM WILL BEGIN UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOWER-
LEVELS, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MID-WEST. THIS
LOW WILL WILL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY LOWERING, NOW DOWN AROUND 10%. BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE IN OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS; THE WESTERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S
WHILE THE EASTERN CWA WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DUE TO A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WE WILL SEE SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DROP FOR THE 50 KTS WIND GUSTS,
NOW DOWN TO AROUND 10-15% CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT, 10-20 KTS
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AROUND 0-5F NEAR THE
FLAGLER AND KIT CARSON AREAS, POTENTIALLY SPREADING FURTHER
EAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO CLEAR THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL WORK TO CALM DOWN OUR
PATTERN AND LEAD TO A WARMING TREND. WEDNESDAY, NEARLY ALL OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE 40S WITH THE EASTERN
PORTIONS NEARING 50. THE TREND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE
CWA WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL PREVENT MANY CLOUDS FROM
FORMING. COMBINED WITH WEAK WINDS, OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL KEEP COOLING US TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S EACH NIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE DISRUPTING THE RIDGE OVER
THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO FORM AND COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LIST OF ACRONYMS:
F - FAHRENHEIT
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF ~10-15 KNOT SOUTH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
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