868
FXUS63 KGLD 190905
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE, DRY
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
- SLOWLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING, CONTINUING EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA AROUND SUNSET. MOISTURE IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO
THE 700-500MB LAYER. PRIOR FORECASTS HAD A MENTION OF SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
CONTINUE THE MENTION AS 850-700 AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
OCCURRENCE. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS PARTS OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE READINGS IN THE 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER TEENS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM BURLINGTON TO TRIBUNE WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. IF THE WINDS ARE
LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY
FLIRT WITH ZERO DEGREES ACROSS THE FLAGLER AREA AND POINTS SOUTH
INTO FAR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY (CO).
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND UP TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, A GREAT BLEND OF THE
BETTER PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND INCREASE IN NAM/GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. NAM/GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE ANOTHER 4F TO 6F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND ARE
RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE BETTER PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO
PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS, ZONAL FLOW
ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES THE ONLY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AS A BROAD, OPEN WAVE WHICH SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW AND MINIMAL IMPACTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE PERIOD SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH COOLER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FELT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS ARE FORECAST FROM 14Z-23Z.
FROM 00Z-02Z, WEST WINDS UP TO 11KTS ARE FORECAST. AFTER 03Z,
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS ARE FORECAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL IN THE
17Z-21Z TIMEFRAME.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS ARE FORECAST FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z. FROM 23Z-05Z, WEST WINDS UP TO 11KTS ARE
FORECAST. AFTER 06Z, WEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS WITH POTENTIALLY
GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page