658
FXUS63 KGLD 200345
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
845 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS TONIGHT ACROSS EAST COLORADO; COLDEST
APPROACHING 10 BELOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 385.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE FORECAST EAST OF
THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE LINE WEDNESDAY.
- GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD CLOVER. THERE IS A 700MB FGEN BAND LOCATED ACROSS
THE AREA LEADING TO AN AREA OF SPRINKLES AND PERHAPS MIXED WITH
SOME FLURRIES. A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL IS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS ENTERING YUMA COUNTY
CURRENTLY WHICH IS HELPING KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER AT OR
JUST AFTER SUNSET. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING EASTERN COLORADO AS AN 850MB JET
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
THE CLEARING AND VERY LOW DEW POINTS WILL BE KEY TO LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER. THIS IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO LEAD TO A PRIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES.
CURRENTLY WINDS OUT ACROSS THAT AREA REMAIN FORECASTED AROUND
5-8 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED WIND CHILLS APPROACHING
10 BELOW COME SUNRISE. IF WINDS WE WERE TO COMPLETELY GO CALM
THEN SOME LOCALES MAY EVEN APPROACH ZERO AIR TEMPERATURE. AS YOU
CONTINUE TO GO EAST DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS FROM
BURLINGTON/STATE LINE TO THE UPPER 20S NEAR HILL CITY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH IF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WERE TO ERODE QUICKER THE STRONG
JET WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ROUGHLY FROM A RED WILLOW TO GRAHAM
COUNTY LINE WHERE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE WANING THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. WITH THE BREEZY TO EVEN STRONG WINDS
IN PLACE AND LOWER DEW POINTS, SOME RH VALUES MAY APPROACH 15%
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER WITH THE RECENT
RAIN EVENTS AND SNOW EVENT LAST WEEK, KANSAS MESONET SOIL MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS HIGH SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH SEEMS
TO BE LOW SIDE SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER RELATED
PRODUCTS AS THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE MUTED THIS THREAT FOR
THE TIME BEING.
RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURE "REBOUNDING" INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ON WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY AND LIGHTER WINDS AS WELL. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE
DEW POINT DEPENDENT SINCE TEMPERATURES CAN FALL LOWER THAN THE DEW
POINT. CURRENTLY THURSDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECASTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 20S ELSEWHERE. THEN FOR
FOR FRIDAY LOW 20S IN THE EAST TO THE MID 20S OUT WEST. FRIDAY
MORNING MAY ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME FREEZING FOG AND/OR STRATUS
POTENTIAL AS WELL AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE ESE BUT VERY
LIGHT AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 MPH, HIGHS IN THE 50'S/60'S, AND LOWS IN THE
20'S ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES DEVELOP, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE THROUGH,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A NORTHERN TRACK FOR THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE LOW PRESSURE BEING WEAK AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, PROVIDING LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 50'S. IN REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION, EVEN A FAVORABLE TRACK MAY ONLY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA.
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY WAS WITH HIGHS EITHER
IN THE 40'S OR 50'S. AROUND TUESDAY, A LARGER TROUGH IS HINTED TO
BEGIN SETTING UP OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY STAY A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE (HIGHS IN
THE 40'S OR LESS) AND THERE WOULD BE A FEW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, THE SYSTEM MAY NOT FORM UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK AND ALLOW MILD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT, BUT
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE COOLER SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 842 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS FOR KGLD, WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 15-25KTS
THROUGH 22Z WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS. LLWS FROM
06Z-22Z WEDNESDAY 300-310@45KTS. WINDS FOR KMCK, WEST-NORTHWEST
10-15KTS. GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30KTS FROM 10Z-23Z WEDNESDAY. LLWS
06Z-17Z 300@45KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN
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