292
FXUS63 KGLD 220819
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO DENSE FOG OVER THE EASTERN CWA IS OCCURRING AND
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
- A 50-60% CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, LEADING TO SLICK ELEVATED
SURFACES, SUCH AS BRIDGES.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY
LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- COLDER PATTERN EXPECTED AROUND THANKSGIVING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 116 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME PATCHY TO DENSE FOG IS FORMING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, SO FREEZING FOG IS UNLIKELY IN THE EASTERN
CWA. WE ARE STILL KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THERE IS ABOUT 50-60%
CONFIDENCE THIS WILL FORM AND WOULD BE BELOW FREEZING IF IT DOES
OCCUR. BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS IN FOG THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES
AND ELEVATED SURFACES, AS THEY MAY BECOME SLICK.
TODAY, WE WILL HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION, KEEPING
THE SKY CLEAR AND ALLOWING US TO WARM TO NEAR 60. WE COULD SEE SOME
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS MIDDAY, BUT OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL
BE PLEASANT.
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL COOL TO AROUND FREEZING AS WE REACH AROUND 100%
SATURATION AGAIN. DUE TO LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WIDESPREAD
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IF WINDS BECOME
CALM FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR, OR MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT,
FOG WOULD WOULD HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OFF OCCURRING. CURRENT
PROBABILITY OF FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING IS ABOUT 20%.
STARTING AROUND 18Z SUNDAY, OUR NEXT LOW WILL START MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE PRECIPITATION STARTS AS EARLY AS 15Z
IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA, WHICH COULD BE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX,
BUT THERE'S 85% CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL BE THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE REST OF THE EVENT, DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN TO FALL. BETWEEN 18-0Z, THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. STARTING AROUND 6Z, THE
SOUTHERN CWA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ENDING WHILE THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL SEE RAIN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 10-12Z MONDAY MORNING.
COMPARED TO THE RECENT PRECIPITATION EVENT, THIS WILL BE A LOT
WEAKER OF A SYSTEM. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A
QUARTER INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH A 20%
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS CAPE WILL ONLY BE A FEW JOULES AND HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT ORGANIZED.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE PROPPED UP A BIT BY THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA, LIKELY WARMING INTO THE 50S. LOWS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN CWA, WHERE THE MOISTURE CLEARS OUT
FIRST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN JUST ABOVE FREEZING TO THE
LOW 40S OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY, THE TROUGH EJECTS ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING 25-35 MPH. MOISTURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS
WELL AS THE DAY GOES ON RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. GEFS SPREAD SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS
POTENTIAL THAT A WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS TROUGH CAN SET UP
A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE RAINFALL
INITIALLY BUT WOULD SET UP DRY SLOTTING SCENARIO WHICH WOULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LONG WIDESPREAD DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THIS NEXT
ROUND OF RAINFALL.
MONDAY, A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AHEAD OF THAT HOWEVER GUSTY TO PERHAPS STRONG WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE PREVIOUS DAY LOW EJECTS
OUT. GEFS AND THE DETERMINISTIC 06 AND 12Z GFS WANTS TO BRING IT
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE WIND FIELD FROM A MOUNTAIN WAVE OFF OF THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE. ECWMF ENSEMBLES AND THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF MAKE IT MORE
BROAD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS LEADING TO MAINLY BREEZY WINDS BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE NORM FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN WIND
GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 60-65 MPH GUSTS
MAY BE ON THE TABLE WITH PERHAPS SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL WITH
MIXING HEIGHTS OF 3500-4000 FEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND UNSTABLE 0-
2KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 9-9.5 C/KM. AT THIS TIME AM LEADING TO A
BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE NAEFS MEAN CURRENTLY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY A NUISANCE WIND DAY AND LITTLE
THREAT FOR DUST. THERE IS HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF THE POSITIONING
OF THE 500MB LOW AS WELL SEEN IN THAT SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW CONTINUING FOR
THE AREA BEFORE A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH THE FRONT IT APPEARS THAT A SINGLE
NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS.
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS
TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME SPOTTY SINGLE DIGITS.
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO A PERIOD OF
BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER NOT ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS COLD AIR ACCORDING TO THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 12Z GEFS WITH THE FRONT BEING MORE DELAYED INTO THE FIRST WEEK
OF DECEMBER. CONTINUE TO KEEP UP TO THE DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE KMCK HAS FOG AND CEILINGS THAT BRIEFLY TAKE THEM
TO MVFR AND A 10% CHANCE OF IFR BEFORE 13Z. TIMING IS SO
UNCERTAIN THAT THIS IS NOT DIRECTLY MENTIONED IN THE TAFS VIA
TEMPO OR FROM GROUP. KGLD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THE ENTIRE
TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FOG THREAT SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 6Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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