580
FXUS63 KGLD 230906
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY
LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EXPECTED AROUND THANKSGIVING.
- KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH COULD
BRING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST FOR TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE SEEN SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WITH THE TROUGH
AND THE COLD FRONT DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID 30 DEW POINTS
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING OUT THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDS AGAIN BECOMING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL AGAIN OCCUR AS A MORE
ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CAN OCCUR SOONER (BEFORE SUNRISE) THEN
STRATUS AND FOG (PERHAPS DENSE) WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS
LATER (MID MORNING SUNDAY) THEN JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WOULD OCCUR WHICH IS WHAT MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AT THIS TIME WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE MINIMUM
FOR FOG POTENTIAL, DUE TO THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL ADD IN
SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING INTO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK TO LEOTI LINE. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE
FOG AT THIS TIME IS ONLY AROUND 10% WITH CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IN GENERAL AROUND 20-30%.
SUNDAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-35 MPH ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN ARC OF SHOWERS MOVES
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH A DEVELOPING LOW.
SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE
HIGHER LEADING TO SOME MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF MUCAPE. I DID KEEP THE
RAIN CHANCES DOWN A LITTLE BIT AS 15Z RAP13 CROSS SECTIONS DID
SHOW SOME DRY AIR NEAR 850-750MB LAYER THAT MAY MAKE THE SHOWERS
A BIT MORE SPOTTY OR HAVE VIRGA BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT EARLY
ON. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS OR VIRGA WITH SOME
SPORADIC GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. DUE TO
THE MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL WHERE RAIN IS NOT ONGOING. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS THE BACK END OF
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S SHOULD HELP KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN BUT IF
SOME COOLING CAN OCCUR THEN SOME SPOTTY SNOWFLAKES COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTY.
MONDAY, LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST STARTING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS AS SMALL AMOUNT SO OMEGA REMAIN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACCORDING TO THE 15Z RAP13 AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
TUESDAY WILL START OFF WITH 850MB WINDS BLASTING IN FROM THE NORTH
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXITS TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MIX TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION.
THANKSGIVING, A RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL HELP CLEAR UP THE SKIES SOME AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE RIDGE, THE EASTERN CWA COULD ALSO WARM INTO THE 50S, BUT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID 40S DUE TO A SLOWER RIDGE
PASSAGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, EXCEPT MOST
OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE MID TEENS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS IN THE MID 20S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL HAVE A 10-15% CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW 20S. IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT OCCUR,
THERE WILL NOT BE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS WILL MIMIC
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING, OUR NEXT
STRONG LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION. WITH IT BEING 7 DAYS OUT AND
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT, THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, COLDER
TEMPERATURES, AND PRECIPITATION, VERY LIKELY SNOW. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE (<5%) CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW, HEAVILY
IMPACTING VISIBILITY AND TRAVEL. THERE IS ALSO A 20-40% CHANCE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 10 DEGREES DURING THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 957 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z, BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR A 20% CHANCE THAT SOME FOG
MAY FORM BEFORE 14Z. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AMENDMENTS OR CHANGING
CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BROUGHT IN BY AN UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
21-04Z. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH BE
ALERT FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-35 KTS AS THESE MOVE THROUGH. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD FORM SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AND MOVE THROUGH
TO THE NORTH. AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL, LOW AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH IN AND LOWER CEILINGS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
FALL TO 1000FT FAIRLY QUICKLY, AND COULD LOWER TO AROUND
300-500FT. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z WITH THE INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
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