201
FXUS63 KGLD 230950
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINS SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EXPECTED AROUND THANKSGIVING.
- KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH COULD
BRING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
TODAY IS FORECAST TO START WARM AND CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH
DRY AIR STILL MOSTLY IN PLACE. THOSE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 40 MAY SEE SOME PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING AS SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERS IN THE AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. AS IT DOES, IT IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
SHOULD FORM SOME SHOWERS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW, MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO THE LOW THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA TO
THE INITIAL BAND PASSING THROUGH. AFTER THAT, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
MAY LINGER WHERE THE DRY SLOT DOES NOT INTRUDE, MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO (WRAP AROUND SIDE) AND THOSE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 (AREA
FORECAST TO BE AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MIX IN AS CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO AROUND 60 AND MAYBE ALLOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED JULES OF
MUCAPE.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING. HOWEVER, THE DRY SLOT SHOULD BE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AND INHIBIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A WHOLE. THAT BEING SAID,
THE LOW MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO EFFICIENTLY WRAP INTO THE AREA AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINED
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST
AND THE SURFACE DRY AIR FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, DENSE FOG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP WHEREVER RAIN IS NOT FALLING. CURRENTLY, THIS SEEMS TO
FAVOR NORTHWEST KANSAS BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE, BUT THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL HAVE A CHANCE. WITH THE RAIN AND FOG IN THE AREA, TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NIGHT, LIKELY STAYING IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
MONDAY, THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD END ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, FOG/DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE MOISTURE CLEARING EASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE MORNING, WITH MOST OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THOSE WHO
HAVE SKIES CLEAR EARLY IN THE DAY.
TOMORROW NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND BRING IN HIGHER PRESSURE. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLEARER SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S WITH SOME HIGH TEENS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
TUESDAY WILL START OFF WITH 850MB WINDS BLASTING IN FROM THE NORTH
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXITS TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MIX TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION.
THANKSGIVING, A RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL HELP CLEAR UP THE SKIES SOME AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE RIDGE, THE EASTERN CWA COULD ALSO WARM INTO THE 50S, BUT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID 40S DUE TO A SLOWER RIDGE
PASSAGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, EXCEPT MOST
OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE MID TEENS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS IN THE MID 20S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL HAVE A 10-15% CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW 20S. IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT OCCUR,
THERE WILL NOT BE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS WILL MIMIC
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING, OUR NEXT
STRONG LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION. WITH IT BEING 7 DAYS OUT AND
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT, THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, COLDER
TEMPERATURES, AND PRECIPITATION, VERY LIKELY SNOW. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE (<5%) CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW, HEAVILY
IMPACTING VISIBILITY AND TRAVEL. THERE IS ALSO A 20-40% CHANCE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 10 DEGREES DURING THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 957 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z, BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR A 20% CHANCE THAT SOME FOG
MAY FORM BEFORE 14Z. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AMENDMENTS OR CHANGING
CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BROUGHT IN BY AN UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
21-04Z. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH BE
ALERT FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-35 KTS AS THESE MOVE THROUGH. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD FORM SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AND MOVE THROUGH
TO THE NORTH. AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL, LOW AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH IN AND LOWER CEILINGS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
FALL TO 1000FT FAIRLY QUICKLY, AND COULD LOWER TO AROUND
300-500FT. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z WITH THE INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
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