434
FXUS63 KGLD 231919
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1219 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EXPECTED AROUND THANKSGIVING.
- KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH COULD
BRING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
TODAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-35 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN ARC OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH A DEVELOPING LOW. SOME ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER LEADING TO SOME MINIMAL
AMOUNTS OF MUCAPE. CONTINUE TO HAVE CONCERNS ON IF THE ARC OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE MORE BROKEN TO SCATTERED DUE TO
DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE 850-750MB LEVEL AND EVEN SOME
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS WHAT IS CONTINUING TO
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS WITH POPS. THE 12Z NAMNEST ACTUALLY SUPPORTS
THIS ALONG WITH THE 12Z RRFS VERSUS THE HRRR WHICH HAS A MORE
ORGANIZED ARC OF RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
SHOWERS OR VIRGA WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. LIGHT
RAIN MAY THEN CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BUT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IT MAY BE A BIT SPOTTY DUE TO DRY SLOTTING. DUE TO THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL WHERE RAIN IS NOT ONGOING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE A
REASON TO CHANGE THE FOG FORECAST THAT WAS INHERITED FROM THE
PRIOR SHIFT. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE DUE HIGH DIFFERENCE
VALUES OF SURFACE TO 1KM MIXING RATIOS. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS THE BACK END OF
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S SHOULD HELP KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN BUT IF
SOME COOLING CAN OCCUR THEN SOME SPOTTY SNOWFLAKES COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTY DUE
TO WET BULBING.
MONDAY, LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST STARTING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS AS SMALL AMOUNT SO OMEGA REMAIN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACCORDING TO THE 15Z RAP13 AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING FOG MAY ALSO STILL
CONTINUE BUT SIMILAR TO THE RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD END WEST TO
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HAVE EXTENDED
THE DURATION OF THE FOG THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO A DEEP SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW
LEVELS ACCORDING TO 15Z RAP13 SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAY REMAIN FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS. GFS AND THE ECWMF
AIFS ARE NEARLY SIMILAR ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING
BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z SO HAVE TRENDED MAX T FOR THE DAY A LITTLE
LOWER AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP
OCCURRING BEFORE SUNRISE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOME SINCE THE COLDER AIR IS NORMALLY MORE SHALLOW THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, WITH THIS THINKING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN THE LOW 40S.
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS REMAIN FORECAST THROUGH THE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS WHAT
IS MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF
35-ISOLATED 50 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS THE 850MB WIND FIELD
INCREASES DUE TO RESPONSE OF THE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD MID WEEK, INCLUDING FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AT THIS TIME DOES LOOK TO BE MORE TRANQUIL
AS WELL WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE CAN AMPLIFY MORE
THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP A FEW DEGREES BUT
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
THE COOLER AIR MASS DUE TO THE FRONT ON TUESDAY REMAINING IN
PLACE. IN FACT THERE ARE SOME GEFS MEMBERS THAT KEEPS COLDER AIR
IN PLACE WHICH WOULD END UP RESULTING IN COOLER THAN FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE STARTING AS SOON AS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TRENDING TOWARDS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS SW KANSAS. THESE TWO
FEATURES MAY CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THIS LOW IS WHAT WILL DICTATE THE SPEED OF THE COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE
TOWARDS A SATURDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR TOWARDS
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. SNOWFALL DOES APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK BUT WILL BE
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TROUGHING EJECTING ONTO THE
PLAINS. IF THE TROUGH CAN STAY FURTHER SOUTH THEN THAT WOULD
ELIMINATE ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW 10 DEGREES HAS INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOW LOOKING TO BE 40-60% CHANCE AND 10-30% CHANCE OF BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
AN INCOMING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
IS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IMPACTING GLD
FIRST THEN MCK. I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE LIGHTNING
STRIKE FOR EITHER TERMINAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 10-15% IN
THAT SO WILL MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THE AFTERNOON GOES
ON. STRATUS AND SOME FOG/DRIZZLE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THESE
SHOWERS ALONG WITH CEILINGS BECOMING IFR TO EVENTUALLY LIFR.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 KNOTS. BE AWARE OF SHIFTING WINDS AS WELL AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page