034
FXUS63 KGLD 260822
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AROUND THANKSGIVING.
- FIRST ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST, BUT IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY
ARE POSSIBLE.
- SECOND ROUND OF SNOW AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
FOR TODAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA, THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S INSTEAD OF THE LOWER 40S. THE DAY IS FORECAST TO START
PARTLY CLOUDY, BUT SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND 700-400MB MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FLOW. AS THIS
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH, VIRGA OR MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES MAY FORM
WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE PROHIBITING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT BELOW 10 MPH, EXCEPT FOR COUNTIES
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, THERE IS THE
CHANCE THAT SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND PROVIDES BRIEF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE,
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR 20 WITH
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THANKSGIVING REMAINS FORECAST TO BE AN AVERAGE FALL DAY AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND 50 BEFORE
MORE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR VIRGA/SPRINKLES RETURN LATER IN THE
DAY AS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD VARY IN
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
THANKSGIVING NIGHT, MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AS LOWER PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING IN SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON, ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SOME FOG. THAT BEING SAID,
IF THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DOES DEVELOP, FOG MAY NOT FORM AT
ALL AS THE AREA REMAINS INSULATED AND TEMPERATURES DON'T REACH THE
DEWPOINTS.
FRIDAY, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS IT DOES SO, THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SPREAD FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A SCENARIO WHERE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SEES
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND CLEARER SKIES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA CONVERSELY MAY HAVE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER OR FOG WITH THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION. WINDS
WOULD ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA, THOUGH SOME 40S IN THE EAST IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW THICK
THE CLOUD COVER IS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
THIS WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A COLD FRONT
REMAINS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT'S DISCUSSION AS ALL OF THAT CONTINUES
TO REMAIN ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
SNOWFALL STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH
ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THERE DOES CONTINUE TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF
SNOW ALONG THE FRONT AND ANY OTHER MESOSCALE FGEN BANDS BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CURRENT SOIL TEMPERATURES AT THE
GOODLAND OFFICE IS IN THE UPPER 40S BUT WITH SOME COLDER NIGHTS
LEADING UP TO THIS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL ON
ROADWAYS OR AT LEAST ON ELEVATED SURFACES. DO CONTINUE TO SEE
THE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY THAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS
DISCUSSING WHICH DOES BRING ABOUT SOME SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FRONT. STILL THOUGH EVEN WITH THE GROUND TEMPERATURES
MORE THAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT SEVERELY LIMITING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
LIGHT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE COMING TO AN END TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
WITH THE CONSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS WELL WHICH MAY BE EVEN MORE IMPACTFUL THAN
JUST A LIGHT SNOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO NOT GET MUCH IF AT ALL ABOVE
FREEZING. I STILL THINK THAT THE NBM IS TO WARM ON TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONSISTENT CAA, CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT
THAT ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE SO SHALLOW THAT GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO
PICK UP ON THE TRUE COLD NATURE OF THEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 50-60% THAT HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S. SAME THING GOES FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY OF SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR THE SAME
REASONING AS ABOVE. FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. I FEEL THE NBM
IS LOADING IN TO MUCH OF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AND DUE TO THE
CHAOTIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
TEMPERATURES ARE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES
BETWEEN 18 AND 06Z AS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...KAK
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