294
FXUS63 KGLD 261106
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
406 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AROUND THANKSGIVING.
- FIRST ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST, BUT IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY
ARE POSSIBLE.
- SECOND ROUND OF SNOW AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
FOR TODAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA, THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S INSTEAD OF THE LOWER 40S. THE DAY IS FORECAST TO START
PARTLY CLOUDY, BUT SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND 700-400MB MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FLOW. AS THIS
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH, VIRGA OR MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES MAY FORM
WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE PROHIBITING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT BELOW 10 MPH, EXCEPT FOR COUNTIES
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, THERE IS THE
CHANCE THAT SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND PROVIDES BRIEF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE,
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR 20 WITH
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THANKSGIVING REMAINS FORECAST TO BE AN AVERAGE FALL DAY AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND 50 BEFORE
MORE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR VIRGA/SPRINKLES RETURN LATER IN THE
DAY AS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD VARY IN
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
THANKSGIVING NIGHT, MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AS LOWER PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING IN SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON, ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SOME FOG. THAT BEING SAID,
IF THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DOES DEVELOP, FOG MAY NOT FORM AT
ALL AS THE AREA REMAINS INSULATED AND TEMPERATURES DON'T REACH THE
DEWPOINTS.
FRIDAY, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS IT DOES SO, THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SPREAD FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A SCENARIO WHERE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SEES
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND CLEARER SKIES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA CONVERSELY MAY HAVE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER OR FOG WITH THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION. WINDS
WOULD ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA, THOUGH SOME 40S IN THE EAST IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW THICK
THE CLOUD COVER IS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT, A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A CORRESPONDING 850 MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 3-6Z SATURDAY AND
OVER 4 TO 6 HOURS CLEARING THE CWA. LOOKING AT CROSS-SECTIONS,
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES AND LAPSE RATES SHOW BRIEF POCKETS
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONDITIONAL INSTABILTY.
ADDITIONALLY, 1-12 MICROBARS OF FORCING AND A MOSTLY SATURATED
COLUMN ARE EXPECTED. THERE DOES APPEAR TO STILL BE SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION AROUND 700 MB, BUT THIS SIGNAL LOOKS MUCH WEAKER NOW THAN
IT DID 24 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HAVE ALREADY COOLED TO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT HITS, AND WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPERS TEENS TO LOW 20S BY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS LOOK LIKELY WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT HOW FAST IS STILL IN QUESTION. BEFORE SUNRISE,
GUSTS RANGING FROM 20-30 KTS ARE LIKELY, BUT GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
TO BOIL IT DOWN, SNOW IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW. WITH THE INSTABILITY, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALL. EITHER THE
BLOWING SNOW OR SNOW SQUALL WOULD LEAD TO A RAPID REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY, MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY
REDUCTION TO UNDER 3 MILES IN THIS SYSTEM IS ABOUT 30%. THANKFULLY,
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH THE
GROUND TEMPERATURE BEING SO WARM, MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
TO MELT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FALLING.
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT IN THE 30S BETWEEN THE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WHILE THERE COULD BE LINGERING
FLURRIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE MORE
CONCERNING PARAMETER IS THE WINDS. THE 850 MB LLJ FROM THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO BE ROARING AROUND 35-45 KTS. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THESE
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SATURDAY MIDDAY. WHAT LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN 40+ KTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE INCLUDE THE ~20%
POTENTIAL OF TOO SHALLOW OF LAPSE RATES, AND THE ~30% CHANCE THE LLJ
JET WILL SET UP TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. IF THE STRONGER GUSTS ARE
ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE, THERE IS A 10% CHANCE 50-55 KTS GUSTS MIX
DOWN. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE EASTERN CWA
AND WEAKEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT, A HEAVILY TILTED 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND AN 850 MB
HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO, IF NOT THROUGH, THE CWA. DURING THIS
TIME, A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AND THERE IS A
5% CHANCE PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL FORM.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, THE 850 MB HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA
AND WILL BE PUSHING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT 500 MB
TROUGH WILL START IMPACTING THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
EVEN LESS AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD VS
24 HOURS, BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF
THIS TIME. THE GFS AND CMC-NH ARE SHOWING A WELL SATURATED COLUMN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MILD TO MODERATE FORCING, WHICH WOULD GIVE
THE AREA SOME SNOW, LIKELY LESS THAN 2 INCHES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
US GETTING DRY-SLOTTED AND PREVENTS MAJORITY OF THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ONE THINGS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE AGREEING ON
IS THAT THERE IS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF THE AREA RECEIVING MORE
THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NBM/NDFD QPF IS
BASICALLY 0, WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME A HAZARD. SUNDAY'S
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 10F, AGAIN. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG DURING THE COLDEST TIMES, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP AROUND AND BELOW ZERO SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WITH SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS COOLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE NBM IS BARELY
SHOWING THIS IN THE NDFD POPS GRIDS. HOWEVER, THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
CMC-NH ALL SHOW A MODERATELY MOIST COLUMN WHILE THE THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, AROUND 18Z MONDAY. WHAT WOULD
PREVENT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING MIDDAY MONDAY WOULD BE IF DRY,
NORTHERLY AIR INTRUDES AND WE LOSE THE MOISTURE. THIS WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND, IF NOT BELOW, FREEZING MONDAY, INSTEAD OF THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THE NBM/NDFD ARE SHOWING.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CEASE BY 6Z TUESDAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
WILL START BUILDING IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOW TEENS. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL START
WARMING AGAIN AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DAYS BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE BELOW 6 KTS, WITH A
SMALL PERIOD OF AROUND 10 KTS FOR KGLD BETWEEN 16-21Z AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
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