196
FXUS63 KGLD 271618
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
918 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THANKSGIVING.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, STRONGEST SAT
MORNING (30-40 G 55 MPH). A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SAT MORNING (PRIOR TO SUNRISE).
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, COLDEST
ON SUN-MON WHEN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK
AND MORNING LOWS MAY APPROACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 0 TO -5F.
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 102 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE! THANKFULLY, TODAY IS LOOKING TO BE
FAIRLY MILD FOR LATE FALL WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
HAVE THE AREA SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO AROUND 50. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 15 MPH WITH
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE THE BROAD HIGH. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, VIRGA AND SOME SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE DAY AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. THOUGH THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT DRIER NEAR THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT THE SPRINKLE/FLURRY CHANCES.
FRIDAY, THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND TOWARDS THE PLAINS. AS THE
TROUGH NEARS, IT IS FORECAST TO HELP DEVELOP AND DEEPEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPAND INTO THE AREA. THIS IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT THE AREA INTO TWO DIFFERENT SETS OF
CONDITIONS. FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER, SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PEAK THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING AND HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 MPH. FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF A
LEOTI, KS TO COLBY, KS TO TRENTON, NE LINE, COULD COVER SHOULD
BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
50. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER FOR THIS AREA ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW WITH SPEEDS A AROUND 15-20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES REGION WHILE
SLOWLY ELONGATING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS DUE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND EXPANDING A BIT. WITH
THIS, THE AREA WILL BOTH BE IN THE WRAP AROUND SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WITH THE MAIN
WAVE. THIS COULD HAVE PRODUCED A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION,
BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY SLOTTED FROM THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY. FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THOUGH, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FOG AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME FREEZING FOG. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATE BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN. THE CHANCE FOR
FREEZING FOG IS FAIRLY LOW AS BOTH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND
CLOUD COVER PROVIDING SOME INSULATION OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING INITIALLY. FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THOUGH, AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND THEN THROUGH
THE AREA, SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT TAKES WHAT MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE AND THEN COMPACTS AND LIFTS IT. SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. THOUGH THE FAST
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME BRIEF SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
AND HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES.
FOR SATURDAY, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OR FOG SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AND THE HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THIS DOES SET
SATURDAY UP TO BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S/30S AND WINDS AROUND 20-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH.
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST TUESDAY, THERE COULD BE A FEW SPORADIC 60
MPH WIND GUSTS WITH AROUND 50 KTS WINDS AT 850-700MB. THOUGH THE
LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE EARLY FRONT SHOULD KEEP US FROM
REACHING OUR MAX GUST POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF
THE SEASON WE'VE HAD SO FAR. WITH THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR DEWPOINT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER
COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA, THE FORECAST STILL HAS SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH, ALLOWING FOR
WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. BE
PREPARED FOR A COLD NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
SUNDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE 20S. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. SNOW CHANCES BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, THEN ENDING WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE SHOWS 1-3" WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AVERAGE AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGE SHOW LESS THAN 1". WIND WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SOMEWHAT
COLDER MONDAY NIGHT THAN SHOWN BY THE NBM DUE TO FRESH SNOW,
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NBM HAS MID TEENS WHILE COLDER
MODELS SHOWING SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE.
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A VERY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE, BUT SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL AT THIS
TIME RANGE OF ANYTHING IMPACTFUL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 915 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO THE MID-UPPER LEVELS (ABOVE ~8,000 FT
AGL). LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS (TODAY) WILL SHIFT TO THE ESE-SE AND
MODESTLY INCREASE TO ~7-13 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT..
WHEN LLWS IS EXPECTED IN ASSOC/W A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET. LLWS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WEAKENS AND SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE TO ~13-18
KNOTS.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE CONFINED E AND SE OF THE MCCOOK TERMINAL. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS (TODAY) WILL SHIFT TO THE ESE-SE AND MODESTLY INCREASE TO
~6-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.. WHEN LLWS IS EXPECTED
IN ASSOC/W A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. LLWS WILL END WITHIN
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND
SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SSE AND INCREASE TO ~15-20 KNOTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
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