643
FXUS63 KGLD 281111
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
411 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT SOME
LIGHT ICING MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, FAVORING
COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SAT MORNING, STRONGEST (30-40 G 55
MPH) BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON SAT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, COLDEST
ON SUN-MON WHEN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK
AND MORNING LOWS MAY APPROACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 0 TO -5F.
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
FOR TODAY, A SEASONABLE DAY IS FORECAST AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITHIN THIS FLOW, MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
CLOUD SKIES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, A LOW IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE
AND DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE WINDS A
BIT IN THE AREA AND BRING IN SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN'T HAVE FOG FORMING WITH THIS, BUT IT MAY
ADD SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE ALREADY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER WINDS
EAST. FOR LOCALES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NEAR THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH WINDS WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA, COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 ARE FORECAST
WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
DOES FORM. WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT IS
A BIT OF A BATTLE BETWEEN HOW FAST THE LOW GETS SOUTH (PUTTING THE
AREA ON THE WRAP AROUND SIDE OF THE LOW) AND HOW FAST IT GOES EAST
(MOVING THE DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA). THE SLOWER THE LOW, THE MORE
MOISTURE THAT WILL WRAP IN AND ALLOWS FOR RAIN, FOG, AND SNOW. THE
FASTER THE LOW, THE MORE THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND ENDS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY SIMILAR TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS, WITH A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND FOG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
THEN BRIEFLY BECOMES SNOW. THE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LOW
FOR EACH, BELOW A TENTH OF LIQUID AND BELOW AN INCH OF SNOW. THAT
BEING SAID, THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO FAVORED IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION.
WHILE NOT IMPACTFUL OR THAT DIFFERENT, IT WOULD INCREASE THE MAX
LIQUID TO AROUND 0.15" AND THE SNOW TO TWO INCHES. THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT
ICING. THE FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHER IF THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE DIPPING SOUTH. WITH THAT, WE WOULD THEN HAVE
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE POINT MOVING
THROUGH. AS FOR THE ICING, THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN, NE TO HILL CITY, KS IF NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WOULD THEN BE CLOSER TO
FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO HIT FREEZING FROM WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEFORE THE FRONT BARRELS THROUGH. WITH THIS, FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. WHILE THE GROUND IS LIKELY TOO WARM
FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTS, IT COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH ELEVATED
SURFACES. EVEN IF ICING DOES OCCUR, ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY WOULDN'T
EXCEED A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH THE LIMITED TIME WINDOW AND
AFOREMENTIONED WARM GROUND.
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY. AN
EARLY COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 6-8MB IN THE 3
HOURS. THIS WOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO CLIMB BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH.
MEANWHILE, WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-
50 KTS RANGE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA AND PUTS US
UNDER A STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE SAVING GRACE IS THAT THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO BROADEN, LOWERING THE CHANCE
FOR WINDS TO EXCEED 50 KTS IN THIS LAYER. EVEN IF THE WINDS ARE
STRONGER IN THIS LAYER, THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH THE WINDS CAN BE MIXED DOWN. SO,
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, EXPECT WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 40-55 MPH
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST
TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION AND FOG SHOULD
END DURING THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S WITH THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE BACK UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE BEEN
PULLED OFF TO THE EAST, HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER WITH MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER, THAT MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ARE FROM SEEING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOW TEENS FROM THE COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS THAT MOVED IN AT THE
SURFACE. AT LEAST WINDS SHOULD BE LOWER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVING AWAY AND THE INVERSION SETS UP. STILL THE WIND MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS.
SUNDAY, WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A SIMILAR UPPER PATTERN TO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE WITH THIS TROUGH IS THAT IT IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT
FURTHER WEST, WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING IT COULD SHIFT EVEN FURTHER
WEST. THE MORE WEST IT SHIFTS, THE LESSER THE IMPACT TO THE AREA.
IRREGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. COMBINED WITH BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE UNITES STATES, SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 MPH OR
LESS FOR LOCALES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, WHILE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE LOW SEES WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY UNIFIED ON THE TROUGH
AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA AND INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MAY STAY CLOSER
TO THE WEST COAST. WITH THIS DISCREPANCY, THE FORECAST CURRENTLY
FOLLOWS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. UNLIKE
SATURDAY'S EVENT, THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TOO FAR TO HELP PROVIDE
EXTRA LIFT SO MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE DUE TO THE TROUGH AXIS. WITH
THE COLD TEMPERATURES SLRS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER AROUND 15-20,
WHICH COULD HELP THE AREA SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCHES.
THIS IS IN SPITE OF LESSER OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR
COLUMN. IF THE TROUGH DOES STAY WEST, THEN THE AREA MAY SEE NO SNOW
AT ALL OR FLURRIES WITH LITTLE FORCING TO WORK WITH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO START
THE PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN 1 INCH EXPECTED. SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND
MITIGATING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO THE 40S FOR
HIGHS. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLES SHOW LIGHT SNOW CONFINED
MOSTLY TO COLORADO, LESS THAN 1 INCH, THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT A STRAY FLAKE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AROUND 20. MAY SEE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY, BUT SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS
EVEN LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COOLISH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
FOR KGLD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE PERIOD. AROUND 15Z, A PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 1500FT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS PATCH DOESN'T FORM, WHICH WOULD THEN
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03-06Z. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING AND CLEAR THE TERMINAL BY 19Z. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 G 20 KNOTS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN A
SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE TERMINAL AND WEAKENS THE WINDS.
TONIGHT, THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WRAP LOW CEILINGS BACK INTO THE
TERMINAL, WITH CEILINGS LIKELY BELOW 1000FT. SOME DENSE FOG MAY
ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP IF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL. AROUND
09-11Z, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
IT SHOULD SHIFT WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 G 25 KTS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT, AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 1000-2500FT AND INCREASE WINDS TO
12 G 20 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AROUND 03Z, THE LOW SHOULD WRAP ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINAL TO LOWER CEILINGS TO
AROUND 500-800FT. SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE OVER
THE TERMINAL. AROUND 09-11Z, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL. IT SHOULD SHIFT WINDS TO OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 G 25 KTS. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
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