783
FXUS63 KGRB 160504
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1104 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A DUSTING TO AN INCH IS
EXPECTED, WHICH COULD FORM SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS
AND SIDEWALKS.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT CROSSED MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR,
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ONLY PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH- CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY HAVE A
SHOT AT BREAKING AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION (>30% CHANCE). DESPITE
THIS, THE TIMING OF THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE
AND COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS, WHICH MAY
MAKE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF CONCERN FOR MOTORISTS.
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA, ALMOST 20-30 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
COLD DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL START OFF FAIRLY CLOUDY BUT SOME
CLEARING COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY, AND SAT-MON
WILL BRING ABOUT OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
TO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT ANY
SNOW COULD CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FRIGID AIR SUN-TUE. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB FALL
TO AROUND 30C BELOW, MAKING FOR SURFACE TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVERNIGHT, AND STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE ZERO
DURING THE DAYS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS LOOK COMPARABLY
COLD, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING TO 20 BELOW AROUND 70-90% IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI, AND 90%+ CHANCE OF GETTING TO 10 BELOW AREA
WIDE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 30 BELOW RANGE
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD OF TIME, GETTING AS COLD AS 35 BELOW IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW HAS EXITED, BUT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI (RHI).
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE MVFR DUE TO CIGS, BUT BRIEF LOWER VSBY
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI,
BUT WILL SCATTER OUT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 20 KTS AT TIMES, FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN/KLJ
AVIATION.......JLA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page