525
FXUS63 KGRB 161021
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
421 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADS AND SIDE WALKS.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS COUPLED WITH
DECENT LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MORE EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL AT TIMES. THIS COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. THIS COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROAD WAYS. EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE STATE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING, BUT ANY MOTORISTS WHO HAVE AN EARLY COMMUTE COULD STILL
SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY MID DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL START OFF
CLOUDY BUT SOME CLEARING COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS COLD
LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE STARTS TO
ZERO IN ON TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL VALUES. OTHERWISE, LAKE EFFECT
REGIME WILL BRING PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS... LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HONES IN ON A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY AND STICKING AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR RECEIVING WIND CHILLS
BELOW -35 DEGREES CURRENTLY STAND AT A WIDESPREAD 60 TO 90 PERCENT
IN OUR WESTERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES(SPANNING MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRAL WISCONSIN) EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
PUT MOST OF THE FORECAST ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN HEADLINE CRITERIA,
EVENING CROSSING THE LINE INTO WARNING TERRITORY IF TRENDS HOLD.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TELL A SIMILAR STORY AS WIND CHILLS ONCE
AGAIN PLUNGE INT TO THE -30 TO -35 RANGE AREA WIDE. SUSPECT THAT
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME MIGHT BE UNDER PERFORMING
SLIGHTING GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS WHEN COMPARED TO MONDAY. SUFFICE
TO SAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND -20 DEGREES, IT
WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH WIND TO QUICKLY TANK WIND CHILLS. EXPECT
HEADLINES TO BE FORTHCOMING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
HAS SUPPORTED OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI (RHI). THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BRIEF CHANCES FOR LOWER CIGS AT TIMES TO IFR. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, CENTRAL TO NORTH- CENTRAL WI,
BUT WILL SCATTER OUT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 20 KTS AT TIMES, FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....PATTERSON/
AVIATION.......PATTERSON
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