689
FXUS63 KGRB 161744
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1144 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS COUPLED WITH
DECENT LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MORE EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL AT TIMES. THIS COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. THIS COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROAD WAYS. EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE STATE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING, BUT ANY MOTORISTS WHO HAVE AN EARLY COMMUTE COULD STILL
SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY MID DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL START OFF
CLOUDY BUT SOME CLEARING COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS COLD
LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE STARTS TO
ZERO IN ON TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL VALUES. OTHERWISE, LAKE EFFECT
REGIME WILL BRING PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS... LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HONES IN ON A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY AND STICKING AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR RECEIVING WIND CHILLS
BELOW -35 DEGREES CURRENTLY STAND AT A WIDESPREAD 60 TO 90 PERCENT
IN OUR WESTERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES(SPANNING MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRAL WISCONSIN) EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
PUT MOST OF THE FORECAST ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN HEADLINE CRITERIA,
EVENING CROSSING THE LINE INTO WARNING TERRITORY IF TRENDS HOLD.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TELL A SIMILAR STORY AS WIND CHILLS ONCE
AGAIN PLUNGE INT TO THE -30 TO -35 RANGE AREA WIDE. SUSPECT THAT
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME MIGHT BE UNDER PERFORMING
SLIGHTING GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS WHEN COMPARED TO MONDAY. SUFFICE
TO SAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND -20 DEGREES, IT
WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH WIND TO QUICKLY TANK WIND CHILLS. EXPECT
HEADLINES TO BE FORTHCOMING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS CENTRAL AND VFR
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VFR CEILINGS AND SOME CLEARING ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH A MIX OF SCT-BKN VFR
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LLWS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....PATTERSON
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
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