853
FXUS63 KGRB 170921
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
321 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO, LOCALLY COLDER, APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES TO BE FORTHCOMING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LAST TWO
WEEKS, THOUGH A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, AND
MAY REACH 40 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ELSEWHERE.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND. IT WILL REALLY TURN COLDER OVERNIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS BY DAWN. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN VILAS COUNTY, BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FRIDAY MORNING, AND LEVEL OFF IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGE FROM
FIVE TO 15 BELOW ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY END IN
VILAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAIN FRONT-LOADED ON
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACCOMPANIED BY LIKELIHOOD FOR COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE SNOWBELTS THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH FOCUS WILL BE
ON COLD-RELATED IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS... MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON WIND
CHILL RANGES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STANDS AT A WIDESPREAD 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RECEIVING WIND CHILLS BELOW -30 DEGREES ACROSS OUR WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES (SPANNING CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN)
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, WITH A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF GETTING BELOW -35 DEGREES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKEWISE FAIL TO
MAKE IT ABOVE ZERO DEGREES FOR MOST, THE FIRST TIME THIS HAS
HAPPENED SINCE 2019. AS HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY MESSAGED, MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOLIDLY WITHIN HEADLINE CRITERIA DURING THIS
TIME, VERGING ON WARNING TERRITORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE BACK TO POSITIVE VALUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHUNTS THE ARCTIC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN WI. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, THOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE IN FORM OF SPRINKLES
OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. CIGS ON FRIDAY START OFF VFR, BUT WILL
DROP TO MVFR OVER NORTHERN WI BY MIDDAY AND IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL WI. VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD FROM THE FOX VALLEY TO THE
LAKESHORE (GRB/ATW/MTW), EVEN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THOUGH, SO IT
MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY FOR STRONGEST GUSTS TO REACH THE
SFC. THUS, LLWS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. BETTER MIXING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT SFC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....RDM/GOODIN
AVIATION.......JLA
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