964
FXUS63 KGRB 171752
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1152 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO, LOCALLY COLDER, APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES TO BE FORTHCOMING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LAST TWO
WEEKS, THOUGH A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, AND
MAY REACH 40 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ELSEWHERE.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND. IT WILL REALLY TURN COLDER OVERNIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS BY DAWN. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN VILAS COUNTY, BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SATURDAY MORNING, AND LEVEL OFF IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
RANGE FROM FIVE TO 15 BELOW ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOSTLY END IN VILAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAIN FRONT-LOADED ON
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACCOMPANIED BY LIKELIHOOD FOR COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE SNOWBELTS THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH FOCUS WILL BE
ON COLD-RELATED IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS... MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON WIND
CHILL RANGES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STANDS AT A WIDESPREAD 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RECEIVING WIND CHILLS BELOW -30 DEGREES ACROSS OUR WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES (SPANNING CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN)
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, WITH A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF GETTING BELOW -35 DEGREES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKEWISE FAIL TO
MAKE IT ABOVE ZERO DEGREES FOR MOST, THE FIRST TIME THIS HAS
HAPPENED SINCE 2019. AS HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY MESSAGED, MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOLIDLY WITHIN HEADLINE CRITERIA DURING THIS
TIME, VERGING ON WARNING TERRITORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE BACK TO POSITIVE VALUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHUNTS THE ARCTIC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF LLWS IS FORECAST AT THE EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF
SITES (KGRB, KATW, KMTW). AREA WIDE, SW WINDS VEER NW THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED.
VFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LOWER CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 1500-2500FT ARRIVE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THIS
EVENING, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KRHI, KAUW, AND KCWA.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NORTH OF A RHI TO IMT LINE. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. MVFR CIGS START
TO RISE MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....RDM/GOODIN
AVIATION.......KLJ
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