219
FXUS63 KGRB 200436
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHEN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 40
BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR THIS AREA, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY FOR WIND CHILLS FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT
TIMES.
- FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT FOR WIND CHILLS
OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY FOR
WIND CHILLS TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- A WARMING TREND WILL START ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST CANADA TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BRING IN
BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING
FELL AS FAR AS 35 BELOW TO 37 BELOW AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE THERE IS 3-8 INCHES OF SNOW PACK.
ELSEWHERE, 20-30 BELOW WIND CHILLS WERE OBSERVED BEFORE "WARMING"
TO 10-20 BELOW BY MIDDAY. WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
(NORTHERN MINNESOTA), FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE
AROUND DANGEROUS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING'S WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT TEMPS WILL BE
OFF TO A MUCH COLDER START HEADING INTO THE NOCTURNAL COOLING
PERIOD TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES COLDER
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI. PROBABILITIES SHOW AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF
REACHING 35 BELOW WIND CHILLS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH OBS REACHING TO 35 BELOW THIS MORNING AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, DECIDED TO ISSUE AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL WI STARTING AT MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILLS MODERATE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT THEN FALL RIGHT BACK TO WARNING CRITERIA
ON MONDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20-30 BELOW REMAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH THEN.
IN TERMS OF OTHER WEATHER, SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS SPARSE ENOUGH TO HAVE A LIMITED EFFECT ON TEMPS.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 0-5 ABOVE OVER EASTERN WI AND FROM 0-6 BELOW OVER
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE SOME DEAMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
REMAIN STEADFAST SHOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM HAVING THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. MOST OF THE ATTENTION REMAINS ON THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS THAT ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE ARE ALSO
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AT TIME CENTERED AROUND MID-WEEK AND ALSO NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...THE COLDEST AIR IN THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK
REMAINS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST WIND CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD HAVE
REMAINED REMARKABLY CONSISTENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD 30 BELOW TO 40
BELOW VALUES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
EXTENDING THEIR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES INTO TUESDAY, WILL ISSUE A
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEREFORE REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DESPITE THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AFTER THE EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS ENDED THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARMING TREND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THINK THAT COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY END PRIOR TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES: SHORTWAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO LOOK
DISJOINTED DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HONE IN ON THE DETAILS. IN THIS MODEL CYCLE,
MODELS ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT SATURATION FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AND UNFOCUSED
ENERGY WILL KEEP POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIGHT.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN,
FORCING LOOKS UNFOCUSED SO PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THE DETAILS
DESPITE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING VERY LIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING THROUGH FAR NE WI AT ISSUANCE
TIME, AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM (NW WI) DURING
THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DIMINISHED, AND ONLY A FEW GUSTS
WERE STILL BEING REPORTED ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY. BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018-019.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012-
018-019.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ013-
020>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ013-020>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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