650
FXUS63 KGRB 212058
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
258 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
WIND CHILLS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.
- AFTER TONIGHT, ONE LAST COLDER NIGHT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND ARRIVES AND LASTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT-TERM,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SNOW.
THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT SHORTLY, WITH 850MB
TEMPS AT 20Z/TUE AROUND 26C BELOW, WHICH WILL WARM ABOUT 10
DEGREES TO 16C BY 12Z/WED. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 20-30 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN, WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS AND
WIND CHILLS GETTING ABOVE CRITERIA. LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
EVENING WITH READINGS IN THE 2-10 BELOW RANGE, AND THEN RISING
ABOVE ZERO FOR ALL LOCATION AROUND DAYBREAK (5-8AM/WED). HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE.
MEANWHILE, A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND MOVES JUST NORTH OF WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. SOME WEAK FORCING
FROM THE WARM ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, IS LACKING. A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST. NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW MOST AREAS DON'T EVEN HAVE A 10% CHANCE TO GET
1", ASIDE FROM FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY.
THIS STILL COULD PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
GENERALLY, LESS IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE ONLY CONCERNS BEING LINGERING COLD AIR AND SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS PROGGED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH AIR
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD, THEY WILL NOT BE AS COLD
AS THE MORE RECENT NIGHTS/MORNINGS AND WILL LIKELY NOT WARRANT A
COLD WEATHER HEADLINE. DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT
BE OF CONCERN FOR WIND CHILLS, HOWEVER AIR TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WITH LITTLE SKY COVER, THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT, BUT IT DOESN'T TAKE
MUCH FOR A BITTER COLD WIND CHILL TO DEVELOP. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
CHILLS OF -20 OR COLDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE REMAINED SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES OF 20-60% IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH- CENTRAL WI, AND AROUND 15-20% IN EAST-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST WI.
BEHIND THIS LINGERING COLD AIR, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOW 30S. HOWEVER, ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OR FLURRIES TO THE
REGION, WITH LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SECOND COLD FRONT SOMETIME SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE MINOR AND FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
MAIN AVIATION ELEMENTS WILL BE SURFACE WINDS AND LLWS. WEST WINDS
ARE IN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL AS OF 1730Z, BUT AS WINDS BACK SW TO S
EXPECT GUSTS TO INCREASE 20-25 KTS GUSTS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS AROUND 40KTS AT 2KFT WILL CREATE
LLWS FROM ABOUT 03Z/WED TO 18Z/WED.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED, LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING SNOW AT ANY ONE SITE IS LOW,
SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIME WINDOW
FOR LIGHT SNOW. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT BRIEF DIPS TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THE MOMENT, EXPECTING MAINLY VFR TO
PREVAIL.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....KLJ/KRUK
AVIATION.......KLJ
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