366
FXUS63 KGRB 161155
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
- NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CAUSE
PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE GREATLY
REDUCED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON WEST TO EAST ORIENTED ROADS.
- BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY TO MID PART
OF THIS WEEK. THE COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 20 TO 35
BELOW ZERO. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WAS GENERATING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW BANDS HAVE PULLED OFF THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE, SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KEWAUNEE
AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE
DEEP POWDERY SNOW PACK IN PLACE, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF AT LEAST
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES,
FOX VALLEY AND HWY 29 CORRIDOR. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, AS A SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER MN TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S, WITH ONGOING CAA INITIALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY,
THEN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH ONLY LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
PERISTING NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER INTO MONDAY. ELSEWHERE,
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING.
STRONG CAA WILL CAUSE H8 TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO -25 TO -29 C
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS, AND W-NW WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH, WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO 20 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM 09Z-18Z/MON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO IN NC/C WI ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PRECIPITATION WISE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT, BUT WILL
HOLD OFF NOW ADDING PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST SINCE IT IS SO FAR OUT.
THE MAIN STORY IS THE ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO AROUND -35 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE -35 DEGREE WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL BE ON THE CUSP OF AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE LIKELY FIRMLY IN THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20
TO -35 DEGREES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD ONLY REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES FOR WIND SPEEDS (LOW ENOUGH)
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO GO CALM TOWARDS
SUNRISE. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK IN SPOTS WITH OUR COLDEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH READINGS IN THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY COULD REBOUND WELL INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. A MIX OF MVFR/LOW-END VFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT AS
SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER ARCTIC AIR ARRIVE THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 30 KTS TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS,
COMBINED WITH THE RECENTLY FALLEN POWDERY SNOW, WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 8 TO 13 KTS TONIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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