253
FXUS63 KGRB 162358
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
558 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, WITH
WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN TO MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK.
- A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AREA-
WIDE SNOW OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
COLD WILL BE THE THEME OF EARLY TO MID WEEK. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS
GENERALLY QUIET AS PRIMARY STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN. NEXT WEEKEND AS WARMER AIR RETURNS, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THAT SOME AREA-WIDE LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WITH
SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE WILL EXIT EAST-CENTRAL AND DOOR COUNTY BY 4 PM.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ONLY MODERATELY GUSTY, MAINLY LESS THAN
30 MPH. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, AFTER A FEW DAYS OF GLOOM, THE SUN HAS
MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER CENTRAL WI AND SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
INTO EVEN THE FOX VALLEY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NORTH OF WAUSAU
TO MARINETTE, STILL HAVE FEED OF STRATOCU LAKE CLOUDS, SO EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE. NW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT,
KEEPING SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER WEST OF IRON MOUNTAIN. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ELSEWHERE WITH STEADY BUT NOT AS GUSTY WINDS.
COLD AND BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS EARLY TO MID WEEK...DEEP TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL CANADA SETTLES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY, RESULTING IN POOL OF COLD AIR (H85 TEMPS BELOW -25C)
ACROSS WI INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS LATER TONIGHT WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WITH NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND 3 TO 8 BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING TO
THE LAKESHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 15 TO 33 BELOW
ZERO, LOWEST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH RUNS FROM 3 AM TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL LIFT OUT OF
CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, IT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
HIGH TEMPS ONLY AROUND ZERO FROM CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL, AND NOT
EVEN REACHING 10 ABOVE ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKESHORE. AWAY FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN, IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER
COLD WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS, IF ANYTHING, TEMPS AND WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COLDER COMPARED TO TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ALL AREAS
WILL NEED ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, IF NOT POSSIBLY AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SINCE THE TIME FRAME OF WARNING CRITERIA IS PRETTY BRIEF AND
MARGINAL AT THIS POINT WITH READINGS ONLY RIGHT AROUND 35 BELOW,
DID NOT HOIST A WATCH.
HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER ON TUESDAY NIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. PWATS WILL BE VERY LOW, IMPLYING THAT IF WINDS CAN
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE, THE TEMPS COULD TANK WELL BELOW THE CURRENT
FORECAST, POSSIBLY AROUND 20 BELOW AT USUAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS
TOMAHAWK. WE MAY NEED ONE LAST COLD WEATHER HEADLINE FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT DOES NOT LOOK
AS CLEAR CUT AS WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT OR MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEK...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EMERGES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP
THIS SYSTEM DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SECONDARY MORE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER
VILAS COUNTY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN LESS THAN AN INCH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW FROM THIS WILL BE AT THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW, WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS. CURRENT MODEL BLENDS POINT TO PRECIP
NOT ARRIVING TIL LATER SUNDAY, BUT SOME GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE
EARLIER, MORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL TAKE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE 20S LATE THIS WEEK, TO
THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S FOR NEXT SUNDAY. IF THAT OCCURS, IT WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE FEBRUARY 6TH THAT WE WILL REACH THE FREEZING
MARK AT GRB.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
CLOUDS CONTINUED TO EXIT/ERODE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST WI, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THESE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MAINLY FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST WI TONIGHT, WITH SOME MID-
CLOUDS AT TIMES SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. STRATOCU
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, MAINLY WITH VFR BASES. A FEW LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE CLOUDS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AS
WE LOSE THE BETTER MIXING, WITH GUSTS TO ~15 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO ~20KTS ON MONDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......BERSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page