690
FXUS63 KGRB 171016
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
416 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE
COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, WHEN WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP TO 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, SURFACE TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR COMBINED TO PRODUCE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS
HALTED THE TEMPERATURE FALL ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AND PREVENTED
WIND CHILLS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EVEN SO,
WIND CHILLS WERE STILL 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, AND SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30 BELOW AROUND DAYBREAK, SO THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO FORM THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME
EXPANSION INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN WI. WNW WINDS WILL PERK UP
AGAIN DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING, WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO WEST TO AROUND 10 ABOVE IN
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING, WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN FAR NE WI, AND TO AS COLD AS 15 TO 20
BELOW ZERO WEST. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
SHOULD TAKE WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALLY LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE IN NC/C WI.
THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS A HIGH-END COLD WEATHER ADVISORY,
BUT SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES OR WIND SPEEDS COULD EASILY PUSH
WIND CHILLS INTO WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL MAKE
HEADLINE DECISIONS FOR TONIGHT, AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY
EXPIRES. NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER, BUT THE VERY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH
MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW.
ON TUESDAY, BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS SHOULD RELENT BY LATE MORNING,
AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, ASIDE FROM FAR NORTHERN WI, WHERE SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
BITTER COLD WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. ENOUGH WIND AROUND
TO SUPPORT WIND CHILL READINGS OF 15 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY IN MANY SPOTS. THE COLD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 8 TO 19 DEGREES,
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER FAR NORTHEAST WI. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF SNOW ARE FROM 15 TO 35%, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKESHORE.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN MOVES TO THE EAST.
A MORE MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MILDER
PACIFIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC AIR RETREATS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE COLDER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. THIS TIME OF YEAR, THERE IS SOME
CONCERN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT TO FORECASTED VALUES
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY, THUS KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR NOW.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY A
FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE MI BORDER. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT MAINLY FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST WI TONIGHT, WITH SOME
OTHER LOWER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST. STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, MAINLY WITH MVFR/VFR
BASES. SOME GUIDANCE HAS SOME CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT FOR A TIME
MONDAY, BUT NOT SOLD ON THIS OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY WITH NOT MUCH
UPSTREAM TO SUPPORT THIS, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE. A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE LOWER CLOUDS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO ~15 KTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO ~20KTS ON MONDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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